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Analysis: Johnson in or Johnson out? Trump evaluates what to do with the Speaker of the House

The tug of war over the government shutdown strained the relationship between the two ahead of the second Trump administration.

The government shutdown strained the relationship between the two/ Elijah Nouvelage and Shawn ThewAFP

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The final stretch to avoid the government shutdown was a bit bumpy for Mike Johnson, potentially even costing him his job. The entourage of Donald Trump was very displeased with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, whose recent actions in Congress could call into question his continuity as gavel-bearer.

The House speaker first agreed to bipartisan legislation to stretch funding to March 14, which was opposed by Donald Trump, Elon Musk and other House conservatives, claiming it contained too much spending.

Another proposal was subsequently drafted, one that had the endorsement of the president-elect and X's owner. However, it was defeated on the House floor with 38 Republicans voting against it. With the clock ticking, Johnson crafted another proposal.

Without touching the spending items needed to secure Democratic votes, he trimmed the initial 1,500-page version to just 116 pages, though he had to exclude Trump's key debt-limit request. With the strain of the government shutdown over, the friction and stares between Trump's entourage and the House speaker began, which could spark new issues on Capitol Hill.

Is Johnson's continuity as House speaker in jeopardy?

With less than a month to go before the start of the second Trump administration, Politico spoke with sources close to the president-elect and the conclusion they drew was this, "Trump is not only unhappy with the funding deal, but he's also unhappy with Johnson."

According to the testimony they were able to gather, Trump was doubly upset. First, because of the bipartisan deal Johnson negotiated in the first place, and second, because he excluded the debt ceiling increase from the final text.

"In the past couple weeks, we’ve questioned whether [Johnson has] been an honest broker," one of the sources close to Trump told the aforementioned media outlet. "No one thinks he’s strong. No one says, ‘Damn, this guy’s a fighter,’” added another, while a third was even more caustic: "I don’t see how Johnson survives."

"The only thing that matters is how Trump perceives him"

Despite the fact that he has the support of many conservative lawmakers and opinion leaders, from Trump's entourage they assure that Johnson's post depends purely and exclusively on Trump's backing.

"If he wanted to bury Mike Johnson, everyone knows he could — and he hasn’t. While the president thinks there could have been a better deal, he also hasn’t pulled the ripcord. Where we end up in a week or two is largely undecided," one of the sources explained.

The government shutdown: a recent headache for Republican House Speakers

The Republican Party has had a very difficult time electing and then retaining House Speakers. From 2015 onward, both have been a talking point. Anything in common? Nearly every dispute had to do with the government shutdown.

John Boehner resigned in 2015 amid an internal Republican dispute to resolve the government shutdown. The Ohio Republican could not contain the House Freedom Caucus and opted to resign, and so began Paul Ryan's stint as gavel-carrier.

Ryan had a friendly but strained relationship with Trump. Two years after taking office, he decided to retire from politics to spend more time with his family.

After two years of Nancy Pelosi, it was Kevin McCarthy's turn. It took fifteen rounds of voting to confirm him and he had to agree to a set of rules proposed by Matt Gaetz, who would eventually push for his departure, precisely because he had negotiated with Joe Biden to avoid a government shutdown.

Now it is Johnson's turn, who, after a good start with Trump, seems to have strained his relationship with the president-elect, again because of the government shutdown.

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