Economy, jobs, border key to Trump's success among Hispanics

Donald Trump's historic result among Hispanic voters on Nov. 5 was key to his return to the White House. His success was built upon three key points of the Republican campaign: the economy, jobs and border security. Three areas in which the Biden-Harris administration's management was especially dire for the interests and concerns of Latinos.

According to AP VoteCast, a study of the vote by the Associated Press, Trump registered a spectacular increase in voters from members of this community, especially among young people. In fact, Trump prevailed over Kamala Harris among Hispanic men between the ages of 18 and 44. This group preferred the Republican, with 49% of the vote, versus 48% who opted for the Democrat. Four years ago, 6 in 10 went for Joe Biden.

Overall, Trump lost by just 1 point to Kamala Harris among Hispanic male voters (49-48%), a notable improvement for Republicans that explains his final victory. Among women, the president-elect won 39% of support among Latinas (38% among young women).

'Democrats do not keep their promises'

These figures are explained by the feeling that "Democrats do not keep their promises" and, above all, by the worsening economic situation, which an overwhelming majority perceives "in bad shape." It is not, moreover, about campaign promises. The testimony of several of those interviewed by the AP point out that they lived better under Trump. Both workers and small business owners said their lives were more prosperous thanks to the president-elect's fiscal policies during his first term.

"I'm a blue-collar worker, so small business tax breaks are ideal for what I do," one respondent noted. "Under the Trump presidency opportunities abounded more. I didn't like President Trump much because of his rhetoric in 2016, but other than that and how we were living in 2018 and 2019, I felt like we were living a good life, regardless of what the media said, and so I started supporting him after that," said another.

This experience made it more difficult for Harris to convince these voters that "inflation has gone back dramatically, unemployment is still low and wages have gone up" because of them. These voters simply did not perceive that progress and felt cheated by the Democrats after their four years in office.

Immigration policy, another point for Trump among Hispanics

The inflation caused by the Biden-Harris economic policy has also led many to decide for the Republican, seeing their standard of living affected: "Everything has become much more expensive than it was for me. Gasoline, grocery shopping, even as a college student, everything has gone up in price and that's a big concern for me and other issues like immigration."

And here appears another of the points that brought the president-elect the most votes: border management. Border czar Harris' open-door and "catch and release" policies on U.S. soil are openly rejected by a large majority of Hispanics, who suffered from increased insecurity and feared retaliation for them.

Speaking to the AP, Juan Proaño, a Democrat and CEO of LULAC, the largest and oldest Hispanic American civil rights organization, said: "I think it's important to say that Latinos had a significant impact when it came to deciding who was going to be the next president and they reelected Donald Trump. Latino men certainly responded to the president's populist message and focused primarily on economic issues, inflation, wages and even support for immigration reform."

Men of color are 'the new swing voters'

What this election has made clear is that ethnic minority voters are the new key for parties seeking to put their candidate in the White House. In the words of Terrance Woodbury, co-founder of HIT Strategies, who has conducted research for the Democrats and the Harris campaign:

"Men of color are beginning to emerge as the new swing voters. For too long we've talked about suburban women and soccer moms who can sway the outcome of elections. Now men of color are starting to be, especially younger men, less ideological, less tied to a single party and more likely to switch parties or move in and out of the electorate."