Majority of Democratic voters believe they would win election with Biden

More than half of Democratic voters believe they would win the election if Joe Biden were to run for re-election in 2024. The president also increased his approval rating following his State of the Union Address. Meanwhile, Republican supporters continue to prefer in greater numbers a candidate other than Donald Trump heading into the presidential election, with Ron De Santis as the top-ranked contender.

According to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll, 55% of Democratic supporters believe Biden would be the ideal candidate to remain in the White House. A view shared by half of Americans regardless of the party with which they identify. These figures represent a significant increase in support for the current president's candidacy, considering that it barely reached 38% in November 2022.

Biden, the highest rated politician

His approval rating and perception has also improved following his State of the Union Address. At present, 46% of those polled approve of Biden's management, compared to 43% who did so in January. Also dissatisfied with his work are 46%, although this is less than the 48% who disapproved last month. Among Democrats, the president is bordering on outstanding, with 88% satisfied with his performance and 46% "strongly" approving of his performance. Among Republicans, 82% give the president a fail, with 72% highly dissatisfied.

In addition, Democratic and independent supporters' perception of the president is 83% favorable, with a 13% disapproval. With these figures, he becomes the highest-rated politician in the survey among his voters. As alternatives, the pollsters proposed Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whose popularity has risen from 52% in September 2019 to 63% today. Vice President Kamala Harris, also with a 63% rating, although with a 21% dislike, compared to Buttigieg's 12%. The last Democratic politician the poll asks about is Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, supported by 42% of respondents, while liked by 9%, although the most numerous (49%) are those who are unsure or have never heard of her. Other presidential hopefuls such as Gavin Newson do not appear on this occasion.

Trump loses steam among Republicans

Among Republican voters, Donald Trump is still not the top choice to win back the White House. Although he manages to gain sympathizers (from 35% in November last year to 42% today), 54% of conservative supporters believe that another candidate would have a better chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. In addition, Trump has lost pull among conservatives between November of last year (79%) to today (68%). The number of people with a negative perception of the former president has risen from 18% to 25%.

His main rival, although he has not yet made any move to run, would be DeSantis. The Florida governor has just a two point lower rating among Republican voters than Trump (66%), but a notably lower rejection rate (11%), than the former president. Next among the favorites for conservatives is former Vice President Mike Pence, with 51% of people viewing him favorably, though disliked by 30%. Closing the poll is official candidate Nikki Haley. The former South Carolina governor has the support of 41% of respondents, 12% of detractors although, as in the case of Whitmer, more (46%) say they do not know her.

Concern about classified documents

Finally, the poll asked about classified documents in the hands of Trump and Biden. A majority of respondents (37%) believe that the papers in Trump's possession pose a greater risk to national security than those of Biden. Thirty-six percent view both cases as equally serious, while 26% point to the president as the biggest problem over the issue.