From San Diego to Miami: Home sales soar ahead of expectations

Sales of pending homes in the United States posted an unexpected increase in February, reinforcing signs of a housing market recovery in early 2026.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales contracts - an advance indicator of closed sales - grew by 1.8% over January, far exceeding economists' forecast of a 0.6% decline. In year-on-year comparison, however, pending sales were 0.8% below.

Signs of recovery in the sector

February's rebound ends a streak of three consecutive months of declines and adds to other positive data from the housing sector:

This performance suggests an improvement in residential market activity after a period of weakness.

The key role of mortgage rates

One of the determining factors behind this rebound was the fall in mortgage rates during February, which reached their lowest level since 2022. This partially alleviated the difficulties in accessing housing caused by high prices and the rise in the cost of credit.

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, "the slight increase in outstanding contracts appears to be due to an improvement in affordability," although he warned that this trend could reverse if oil prices rise and, with them, mortgage rates.

Uneven performance by region

The performance of the real estate market in February showed clear differences between regions. The Midwest led the growth with a monthly increase of 4.6%, driven primarily by higher affordability. It was followed by the South, up 2.7%, and the West, which posted a more moderate 0.9% rise.

In contrast, the Northeast was the only region to experience a drop, down 3.6% from the previous month, affected by high home prices and limited available supply.

On a year-on-year basis, the picture was also mixed. The South (+1.2%) and the West (+3.2%) achieved gains, while the Midwest was virtually flat (-0.1%). Meanwhile, the Northeast recorded the biggest drop, with a 12.1% plunge compared to the same period last year.

Outlook: Uncertainty on the horizon

On Friday, President Donald Trump signed two executive orders aimed at improving housing affordability and accelerating construction. Such orders instruct various government agencies to streamline processes and reduce regulations related to housing construction.

Despite the rebound, the outlook remains uncertain. In early March, mortgage rates posted their largest weekly rise since September amid geopolitical tensions and expectations about monetary policy.

Market developments in the spring will depend largely on factors such as the trajectory of oil prices, Federal Reserve decisions and the stability of interest rates.

In this context, although there is significant pent-up demand, the sustainability of the recovery has yet to be confirmed.