There are 20 days left until the November 8 elections. Electoral cycles expect the non-presidential party, in this case, the Republican Party, to advance in the mid-term elections, or to prevail in at least one of the branches of Congress, if not both. That seemed to be the situation up until June, but then the tables turned. The Democrats started gaining ground, with the polls predicting they would take the majority of the Senate, although not in the House of Representatives.
But once again, the tables have turned. The change in trend started around September 21 and 22. The blue wave that seemed set to secure control of the Senate for the Democrats and limit the Republican majority in the House of Representatives ran out of steam, and Republicans have since gained momentum in the polls.
RCP: Republican majority 52-48
The two main media websites specialized in analyzing polls reported this change. One recent change is that Real Clear Politics predicts that there will be a Republican majority in the Senate and by a two-state margin: 52 to 48.
RCP believes that the Democrats will only prevail in states where they have strong voter support, and that has never been disputed. The following are the most important regions. In the west: California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona and Colorado. In the midwest, Illinois. In New England and along the east coast: Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut and Maryland. Arizona is the exception because there could be a surprise, but not impossible, Republican victory.
Hershel Walker's victory
The remaining battleground states would go to Republican, not only in Republican-majority states, but also in states that may vote overwhelmingly for one party or the other and which are in contention.
The polls show that Republican candidate Herschel Walker from Georgia will win, although not with great certainty. Walker has led in the most controversial campaign due to accusations of hypocrisy on the issue of abortion as well as his adulterous and violent behavior with his family. However, voters have not punished him for that, perhaps because they believe that in the Senate he will vote the way they want him to.
Pennsylvania and Nevada
It also shows Republican candidates will win in battleground states. This is the case of Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Adam Laxart in Nevada. In these two cases, like in Georgia, the RCP polling average gives a narrow lead to the Democratic candidates: Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, and John Fetterman in Pennsylvania. So why is it that they don't predict a Democratic victory?
The reason is that RCP, which is the leader in poll analysis, has studied the bias that each pollster has in favor of one party or the other. The polls, by and large, have a clear bias in favor of the Democrats. In other words, it gives them a voting intention that is higher than the real one. What RCP does is take that bias into consideration. On the contrary, 538, the other media specialized in poll analysis, does not correct the bias, and predicts that the victory will be Democratic.
Cook Reports and Inside Elections
But Real Clear Politics isn't the only site giving the GOP good news lately. Cook Reports, another independent analyst, is also shifting its projections in favor of the GOP.
The Hill reported that Cook Reports showed Florida leaning Republican, and has since changed it to "likely Republican," bolstering Ted Cruz's chances of winning his Senate seat. Iowa is the mirror image of Florida. The state has also gone from "likely Republican" to "leaning Republican." On the other hand, Cook points to a change in the Democratic state of Washington. There, the Democratic candidate (Patty Murray) maintains support around 50%, but the Republican challenger, Tiffany Smiley, continues to rise in the polls.
On the other hand, Inside Elections also predicts a Republican majority, but a very narrow one: 51-49. It believes there will be a tie in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Arizona and New Hampshire are leaning Democratic and North Carolina and Wisconsin are leaning Republican.
