Hispanic working-class voters move away from the Democratic Party

At least 60% of Hispanics expressed their dissatisfaction with Joe Biden's work as president.

The Hispanic working class voter is moving away from Joe Biden. A survey by The New York Times published this Monday revealed that the current president and Donald Trump are tied, at 31% of voting intention in this segment. The profile of the members of this community surveyed also shows that the popularity of the former president is growing among the most humble Latinos, since 38% of the participants only reached high school and only 14% have a university degree.

The data from the poll conducted by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer represent a very important boost for Trump's aspirations to return to the White House. It is estimated that at least 36 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in the electoral process, so their ballot will be key to determining who will occupy the Oval Office.

In addition, the survey explained that the former president leads voting intentions among all voters in five key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia. and Pennsylvania. Moreover, in a head-to-head scenario between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the Republican would win the election with 48% against 42% for Biden.

"Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition," explained The New York Times..

Another piece of bad news for the president is that at least 60% of Hispanics surveyed expressed their dissatisfaction with Joe Biden's work as president. The majority indicated that the most important issue in deciding their vote in the presidential election will be the economy, with 61% rating the current economic situation as "poor."

Hispanic vote moves closer to the GOP

Several surveys have already shown how the Hispanic vote in the United States has changed. A survey published in February anticipated that Hispanics are no longer unconditionally Democratic. The Gallup study indicated that the blue party advantage among Hispanic adults and adults ages 18 to 29 has decreased nearly 20 points over the past three years.

"Similarly, Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English," Gallup explained.

These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023. 

The main reason why Hispanics have distanced themselves from the Democratic Party is the policy that Joe Biden has had to address issues such as the economy, immigration and insecurity. Added to that, Hispanics also do not agree with Biden's push for progressive policies.

The director of the Hispanic Engagement Area of ​​the American Principles Project, Alfonso Aguilar, explained to Voz Media, for example, that 60% of those surveyed support measures to prevent men from competing in women's sports, 57% support the ban on gender reassignment surgeries for children under 18 and 64% support requiring schools to notify parents if their child begins identify as transgender.