Oil soared this weekend: Trump, Iran and Hormuz push the market to the brink

Oil prices surged again this weekend, reflecting growing global uncertainty over the direction of the U.S. war with Iran.

Washington's approach to the conflict, which in recent days has combined military warnings with promises of negotiation, has prompted energy markets to react with caution and even nervousness amid a possible profound disruption to global energy supplies.

Brent crude, which serves as an international benchmark, surpassed $110 per barrel again at the open of markets on Sunday, while U.S. crude rose to $114, according to data reported by Axios.

At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic lane through which approximately 20% of global oil transited before the start of the war. Today, that flow is virtually paralyzed.

President Donald Trump has raised the tone in recent days. In a message on Truth Social posted on Sunday, he warned that Iran will "live in hell" if it does not reopen the strait by Tuesday, threatening to bomb key infrastructure such as power plants and bridges.

At the same time, he assured Axios that the United States is holding "deep negotiations" with Tehran. This duality is what keeps markets on edge.

The effect of ambivalence on oil prices

According to the New York Times, oil traders have started to become skeptical of President Trump's announcements. If at the beginning any sign of détente caused immediate drops in crude oil prices, today those same statements have a much more limited effect, experts explain. 

Whenever the president announces pauses in attacks or potential diplomatic breakthroughs, prices drop briefly but quickly recover, because on the ground, the war continues, and energy routes remain compromised.

"As long as prices continue to rise, President Trump will continue to protect this military campaign by publishing headlines that try to contain the market," Adam Kobeissi, a financial analyst, quoted by the New York Times, explained. 

The problem for the White House is that the strategy appears to be losing effectiveness. Investors no longer react with the same confidence to optimistic messages, especially when they are contradicted by threats of military escalation within hours.

Added to this is the material impact the conflict could have on global supply, which would be hard to ignore. According to estimates from TD Securities cited by CNBC, the world could lose about 1 billion barrels of oil by the end of the month, including crude and refined products.

Other projections, such as those of Rapidan Energy, calculate losses of more than 600 million barrels by the end of June, even considering mitigation measures.

Attacks on energy infrastructure in the region exacerbate the situation. Drones have targeted facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain in recent days, while Israel attacked Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr. Each of these events adds pressure on a system already on edge.

In parallel, OPEC+ is trying to respond. Eight of its members agreed to increase production by more than 200,000 barrels per day starting in May. However, Axios explains, it is unclear how that oil will reach the market if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

The impact is already being felt in U.S. consumers' pockets. The average price of gasoline has risen to more than $4.10 per gallon, according to AAA, a significant increase in a matter of weeks.

Against this backdrop, the market seems to have entered a new phase, less reactive to words and more attentive to deeds. Given this reality, President Trump is scheduled to hold a press conference on April 6.