How Russia is escalating drone arms race and provoking NATO

On September 7, the Kremlin launched the biggest air strike of the war against Ukraine: 860 Shahed drones and Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles hit several regions of the country. It was the first time since the Russian invasion began that the government building in the center of Kyiv was hit by attacks of such magnitude.

As a result, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, declared before the United Nations General Assembly that "we are experiencing the most destructive arms race in human history," in reference to Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine with unmanned aircraft.

Kremlin provokes NATO

These massive offensives appear to have emboldened Vladimir Putin, as two days after the attacks on the Ukrainian government building, at least 19 Russian drones crossed Polish airspace.

Several of them were shot down by Polish F-16 and Dutch F-35 fighters, the first time member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) shot down Russian drones over allied territory.

On September 12, NATO activated operation Eastern Sentinel, a multi-domain deployment that reinforces ground bases and air defenses along the Eastern European rim, from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

A day later, two Romanian F-16 fighters tracked a Russian drone that had again violated Romanian airspace until it disappeared from radars near the Romanian community of Chilia Veche, in the Danube delta.

Increasingly reckless raids

The dispatch of drones by Moscow has persisted and its incursions, within the airspace of NATO member countries, have become increasingly reckless in recent days.

On Sept. 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for nearly 12 minutes over Vaindloo Island, in the Gulf of Finland.

"On Friday morning (...), three Russian MIG-31 fighters entered without permission into Estonian airspace in the area of Vaindloo Island, remaining in Estonian airspace for almost 12 minutes," the Estonian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

In response, F-35 fighters from the Italian Air Force, deployed at the Amari base as part of NATO's Baltic Air Police, intercepted and escorted them out of allied space.

Invocation of NATO Article 4

Faced with threats of such significance, Poland and Estonia have decided to invoke Article 4 of the Atlantic Alliance Treaty, which stipulates that member countries shall hold joint consultations whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of them is threatened.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte claimed this week that Russia has violated the airspace of at least six EU and NATO countries, including Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Romania and Poland, and warned that the alliance will employ "all military and non-military tools necessary to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions," stressing that the commitment to Article 5 is "unwavering."

Cheap drones, a strategy of attrition

According to a report by Foreign Policy (FP), the Kremlin's actions are not isolated incidents. These raids are part of a premeditated strategy in which Moscow has made cheap, mass-produced explosive drones the centerpiece of its air campaign.

At the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow launched an average of 150 to 200 drones a month, according to Ukrainian Air Force data, collected by FP, and analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Russia currently produces and deploys nearly 5,000 monthly, averaging more than 1,000 per week. In 2025 alone, Russia has launched more than 33,000 Shahed drones against Ukraine.

This figure was only 4,800 in the same period last year.

According to Foreign Policy's analysis, the steady increase in drone production and deployment shows the evolution of Vladimir Putin's strategy, which includes "saturating air defenses, pressuring urban centers and forcing Ukraine to surrender."

The report estimates that the Kremlin believes it can win the war through endless attrition with low-cost, high-volume weapons, not decisive tank offensives and precision strikes.

A modern version of remote warfare, untenable for the West

The main drones used by Russia are the Shahed - which literally means Witness, in Persian and Arabic -, designed and manufactured by Shahed Aviation Industries, a company belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran.

These devices are used by the Kremlin, since their production is very low cost - between $20,000 and $50,000 - and they are very versatile in reconnaissance and attack missions. Although they don't have much accuracy, they are used massively to wear down the enemy and not for their effectiveness when it comes to attack.

The most advanced variant of these drones is estimated to be the Geran-3, which has a range of up to 1,550 miles. This range capability means that Russia can send these drones to several countries in Europe at the same time.

According to Foreign Policy, the challenge for the West is not the difficulty of intercepting these drones, but doing so at a sustainable cost. Shooting them down with NATO fighters or sending expensive interceptors may demonstrate determination and effectiveness, but it is economically unfeasible. The allies cannot afford to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to take out every one of these drones,

By launching swarms night after night, Moscow has created a modern version of remote warfare that, according to FP, theorists such as Vladimir Slipchenko would recognize immediately. These drones are not intended to provide tactical breakthroughs. On the contrary, their purpose is to wear down Ukraine's defense and impose exorbitant costs on its allies.