Alert for Torrential Rain and Severe Storms: Moderate Flood Risk in Texas and Alerts in the Northeast and Southwest

The National Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued on Thursday a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall in eastern Texas, while the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is maintaining severe storm advisories for large areas of the central, northeastern, and southern parts of the country through Saturday.

Moderate Risk in Texas Due to the Remnants of Edouard

The remnants of Tropical Depression Edouard, which have already made landfall in eastern Texas, are moving toward the northeastern part of the state and will dissipate on Thursday afternoon, but will leave behind heavy rain concentrated in eastern Texas. As a result, the WPC has issued a moderate risk (3/4) of excessive precipitation for Thursday, with flash flooding primarily affecting urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas.

On Friday, that moderate risk will drop to marginal (1/4), although the threat of showers and thunderstorms will remain present across much of the Gulf Coast through Saturday.

Severe Storms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and the Great Lakes

An eastward-moving front will bring moderate rain and thunderstorms to the Northeast, the Great Lakes region, and the Northern Plains on Thursday, with the system moving out to sea on Friday. The SPC has issued a slight risk (2/5) of severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Upper Great Lakes between Thursday and early Friday morning, with hazards including frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, hail, and some tornadoes.

A second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop in the Northern Plains and the upper Mississippi Valley, also under a moderate risk (2/5) of severe weather during the same period, with the same risks of lightning, wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes.

Threat to Continue Friday and Saturday

Severe thunderstorms will persist on Friday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the SPC maintains a slight risk (2/5) through early Saturday morning, with the same associated hazards. Likewise, showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Ohio Valley, the Upper Mississippi, and the Upper Great Lakes, extending across the region through Saturday.

Southwest: Monsoon and Risk of Flash Floods

Monsoon moisture will intensify in the Southwest, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. The WPC has issued a moderate risk (2/4) of excessive precipitation for Thursday and Friday in this area, with localized flash flooding in urban areas, on roads, in streams, and in low-lying areas. Storm activity will continue in the region through Saturday, and some of that moisture will reach Southern California early Saturday morning, bringing rain to the area.

Northwest and Heat Waves in the Central-Eastern Region

In the Northwest, a front located over the region on Thursday will move toward the northern Plains and part of the Great Basin by Saturday, bringing rain from Thursday through Friday, with embedded thunderstorms in the northern intermountain region that will gradually weaken by Saturday. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to rise in the central Mississippi Valley, the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic through Saturday, leading to heat advisories being issued for the middle and lower Mississippi, Ohio/Tennessee, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast for Thursday.