The Dobbs Paradox: Abortions continue to rise since pro-life Supreme Court win

Many pro-life activists are still rubbing their eyes and scratching their heads in the wake of the abortion data released by the Guttmacher Institute. Since the historic victory for advocates of the unborn in the Supreme Court with the Dobbs v. Jackson case, the number of abortions in the country has not stopped rising and reached a new high since 2009, trailing only the record peak of the 1990s.

That's when numerous Republican states launched the approval of legislation with almost total restrictions, with so-called "heartbeat laws" gaining special relevance, which seemed to guarantee that the number of abortions would plummet.

However, as the well-known pro-life professor and expert in analyzing abortion statistics Michael New sadly corroborated after learning last Wednesday that abortions in 2025 reached new peaks: "The news is not great. Guttmacher reports that 1,126,000 abortions were performed in 2025. This is an increase of less than 0.2% since 2024. Unfortunately rising abortion numbers continue."

Backlash from Democratic states

For many activists on the front lines, this did not catch them by surprise. First of all, because of the counterattack from blue states of introducing abortion in their constitution to shield it. As New highlights, these are policies with a direct influence on the number of abortions:

"Public policy matters ... Both Florida and Iowa started to enforice Heartbeat Acts in 2024. In both states abortions dropped by over 24% between 2023 and 2025. ... After Missouri voters placed abortion in the state constitution in 2024 -- abortions in the Show-Me State increased by 48 percent in 2025. Similarly, North Dakota's life at conception law was struck down in 2024. Abortions in North Dakota increased by 32 percent in 2025," New posted on X. 

"Shield laws" and telehealth under fire

The second leg of this story also has its origins in Democratic legislation: the so-called "shield laws" in many blue states to protect their doctors from facing criminal consequences in Republican states to which they send abortion pills, rendering pro-life efforts futile.

So charges Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill: as long as these rules remain in effect, "Louisiana’s efforts to protect mothers and unborn children—and to hold out-of-state abortion pill traffickers accountable for the harm they inflict—will be all but futile."

The last cause is partly due to "friendly fire." It is the Trump administration's inaction, especially on the part of the FDA, in allowing abortion pills to be administered by mail. According to Guttmacher, chemical abortion already accounts for almost two-thirds of the total, and its use has skyrocketed these past few years. Between 2024 and 2025, the increase was 26%, from 72,000 to 91,000.