X-ray of the Democratic voter: Radical minority eclipses large centrist majority

Following the defeat of Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election and with the 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential elections on the horizon, the Democratic Party faces a key dilemma. Is its electoral base radicalizing to the left or, instead, is an activist minority dragging the party toward extreme positions that do not represent the median voter?

A new national poll conducted by the Manhattan Institute revealed that the current Democratic coalition is more moderate, pragmatic and internally divided than suggested by social media, the left-wing press and activist groups funded by big donors.

The survey covered 1,782 registered Democrats and/or Harris voters in 2024, with separate surveys of black (828) and Hispanic (388) voters, for a total of nearly 2,600 interviews.

Party leadership: Closer to the center than the left

The internal tensions within the Democratic Party become clear when looking at which way its voters believe the party should be oriented. According to the data, 38% of Democrats bet on a shift towards the ideological center, while only 22% prefer the party to move further to the left. Finally, 26 % consider that the party is already in the right spot.

The differences become more apparent when analyzing the various subgroups. According to the Manhattan Institute, moderates show the most support for a shift to the center (53%). But even among progressive liberals, the consensus is similar: two-thirds believe the party is already in the right place (38%) or support a move toward more centrist positions (28%).

Likewise, pluralities of black (39%), Hispanic (35%) and white (41%) voters prefer that the party move in that direction, as do both women (37%) and men (40%), as well as those with a college education (39%) and those without (38%).

Finally, the sector identified as woke shows a majority (58%) in favor of moving further to the left.

2028 Democratic presidential primaries

Among Democratic voters likely to participate in the 2028 presidential primaries, the early picture remains fluid, but ideological divisions also shape the contest.

The report highlights that moderates lean slightly toward Kamala Harris versus Gavin Newsom (24% vs. 21%), while Progressive Liberals are evenly split between the two (23% each), with Pete Buttigieg registering 10%. Among voters from the woke stratum, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (AOC) leads the preferences (26%), followed by Harris (20%) and Newsom (10%). The poll also revealed that among 18- to 29-year-olds, Harris leads with 31%, and AOC ranks second with 24%.

Assessing a narrower field of candidates, the Manhattan Institute revealed that Harris remains the top-ranked, albeit by a relatively narrow margin. The poll highlights that in a head-to-head matchup between Harris and Newsom, the result is virtually a technical tie (44% versus 42%), but in a duel between Newsom and AOC, Newsom comes out on top, beating AOC by 25 points.

Finally, more than half of Democrats (55%) would welcome a prominent figure from outside of politics vying for the 2028 presidential nomination, versus 18% who oppose it. This openness is more marked among moderates and progressive liberals than among the woke sector, which, according to the report, suggests that an outsider candidate could fit particularly well in the party's centrist space.

Immigration: Consensus and fractures within the Democratic Party

The poll found that Democratic voters prefer a more pragmatic approach to immigration. According to the report, only a minority (11%) reject deportations altogether, while a majority (54%) want to focus on removing undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes, and another 25% support reducing the number of immigrants through due process. Even among the most progressive subgroup, only one in four rejects any enforcement action.

Regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), opinions are more divided: 49% support abolishing the agency, while 42% prefer to keep it but with fewer functions. Only 4% want to leave it as it is.

Likewise, the study highlights that the Democratic coalition overwhelmingly supports a merit-based legal immigration system: 65% want to prioritize skills and education. As for the current level of immigration, 45% prefer to maintain it, 23% to increase it and 16% to reduce it. The woke sector stands out for its greater support for an increase (40%), compared to progressive liberals (27%) and moderates (16%).

Opinions on assimilation are divided: 45% of Democrats, including 48% of black voters and 55% of Hispanics, support schools in high-immigration areas teaching some classes in languages such as Spanish, Somali or Arabic. In contrast, 38% prefer to focus on English immersion, reflecting a clear internal division.

The transgender debate

On transgender issues, 46% of Democratic voters believe that minors should compete in sports according to their birth sex, versus 34% who prefer to do so according to gender identity; 20% have no preference. In addition, 59% support schools informing parents if a minor asks to identify as transgender or change pronouns, while 26% oppose it.

A majority of Democratic voters take restrictive positions on gender-affirming medical treatment: 52% believe they should be allowed only from age 18 and 23% from age 21; only 4% would want it allowed before 13 and 11% before 16, while 8% would never want it to be permitted, even as adults.

The woke subgroup is more permissive: 64% support young people competing in sports according to their gender identity, 32% would allow medical transitions for minors and 44% reject mandatory parental notification.

The report notes that despite this disconnect, few voters within the Democratic Party are willing to admit that "the Democratic Party has gotten too radical on transgender issues." The poll found that only one-third (35%) agree with that statement, while 46% disagree and 19% are unsure.

Racism and historical memory

The Democratic Party maintains a pessimistic view of racism United States: 52% believe that the country is still very racist, compared to 39% who consider that there has been significant progress. Only 4% think the country is no longer racist.

Perceptions of racism are similar among Democratic groups, but vary in intensity: 46% of moderates, 55% of progressives and 68% of the woke sector believe the country is still very racist. By race, 49% of white voters, 61% of Hispanics and 63% of black voters think so.

Although there is pessimism about racial progress, the Democratic coalition holds a mostly positive view of the country's historical legacy: 64% see it as a force for good in the world and 19% see it as detrimental. This view is strongest among moderates (71%) and progressives (65%), while the woke subgroup is more divided: only 37% see it as positive and 35% as negative.

Democratic voters' economic priorities

The report reveals that today's Democrats express strong support for specific economic reforms. Nearly three-quarters (73%) say billionaires can exist, but should pay more taxes, and a majority of respondents back consumer protection measures such as limits on credit card interest rates (57%) and price controls to address affordability issues (50%). These positions are not limited to the progressive wing: among moderates, 54% support interest rate caps and 49% support price controls.

The economic agenda of Donald Trump has generated moderate shifts in Democratic opinion. Sixty-five percent view tariffs as a tax on consumers, and only 11% support them. As for the role of government intervention in the economy, opinions are divided: 43% believe it already does too much or the right thing, while 41% think it should intervene more.

Faced with a choice between a free market economy and more state intervention, 49% of respondents prefer the free market, 34% opt for more intervention, and 18% have no definite position.

Perceptions of Israel, Palestine and antisemitism

Views on Israel and Palestine within the Democratic Party are more nuanced than is often assumed. Only 13% view Israel as a colonial state that should be dismantled, and only 16% see it as a legitimate country acting primarily in self-defense. Half (49%) take a middle position: Israel has a right to exist, but its treatment of the Palestinians is open to criticism. Some 23% are unsure.

Young Democrats aged 18 to 29years are much more critical: 26% view Israel as a colonial state that should be dismantled, four times more than among those over 65, and only 9% see it as a legitimate country facing serious threats.

The report shows that attitudes toward antisemitism within the Democratic Party evidence a gap between personal identification and societal tolerance. According to the poll, only 4% openly identify with antisemitic positions, although among 18- to 29-year-olds, the figure rises to 8%. However, opinions on how the party should act towards those who express antisemitic sentiments are divided: 44% believe they should not be welcome, while 30% see it as acceptable to seek their support or not to strictly sanction them. Some 22% are unsure.

Overall, open identification is rare, but the boundaries on its political acceptability are not clearly defined.

Broad support for policing

Jesse Arm, vice president for external affairs at the Manhattan Institute, notes in an article in City Journal (CJ) that, on public safety, Democrats are split on their support for the criminal justice system in general. However, he says they strongly support aggressive prosecution of gun crime, view police as essential to maintaining order and overwhelmingly reject political violence.

According to the poll, 55% of the party believes the police are essential to fight crime and ensure security, while 34% believe they cause more harm than good and propose allocating funds to alternatives such as mental health and social services. Among moderates, 65% see the police as essential, as do 52% of progressive liberals; in contrast, in the more radical sector, 59% prefer to reduce police resources.

Why does the Democratic Party seem so radical if its base is moderate?

The answer lies in the institutional ecosystem that dominates Democratic politics. According to Arm, over the past two decades, "a network of progressive advocacy groups, ideological nonprofits, activist donors, and aligned unions has accumulated enormous influence over candidate recruitment, messaging, and policy priorities."

Candidates who depart from activist orthodoxy "often face organized opposition, well-funded primary challenges, and relentless pressure campaigns from within their own coalition." Arm asserts that as a result, the incentives for Democratic politicians point toward escalation rather than moderation: "it’s often safer, electorally speaking, for them to echo the loudest voices in the party than to represent the quieter instincts held by most of their voters."