Most accurate pollster of 2020 has Trump winning the election by wide margin
AtlasIntel also has the Republican ahead of the Democrat in the popular vote by nearly 2 percentage points.
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris nationally. With the presidential election days away, the most accurate 2020 pollster, AtlasIntel, has the Republican ahead of the Democrat nationwide. In turn, he is projected to win the election with all swing states, reaching 312 electoral votes.
"AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 presidential election in the United States. Atlas polls had an average error of only two points and anticipated election results within the margin of error in all swing states during the worst cycle for the US polling industry in four decades," reads the latest poll conducted by the aforementioned pollster.
According to its results, and taking into account Jill Stein of the Green Party and Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party, Trump leads with 49.1% nationally, followed by 47.2% for Harris. Head-to-head, the gap in favor of the Republican is 2.4 percentage points.
If Trump goes on to win the popular vote, he would be the first Republican to do so since George W. Bush in 2004 and only the second in 36 years.
As for the swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, Trump is projected to win each and every one.
">JUST IN: The most accurate poll of 2020, AtlasIntel, releases their final battleground poll showing Trump winning all 7 battleground states.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 31, 2024
Finish strong, vote, and make this a reality.
Arizona: Trump +5
North Carolina: Trump +4
Nevada: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +2… pic.twitter.com/IEeJFnxgnX
Specifically, he leads Harris by 1 point in Pennsylvania and Michigan, by 2 in Georgia, by 3 in Wisconsin, by 4 in North Carolina and Nevada, and by 5 in Arizona.
Pennsylvania is set to be the key swing state. According to AtlasIntel, Trump is forecast to beat Harris among men by 7 points, while the Democrat would win among women by 3.
In terms of Keystone State demographics, Trump is projected to win 24% of the Hispanic vote, 42% of the African-American vote and 52% of the white vote.