Pennsylvania smiles on the Republicans: GOP registers more new voters than Democrats so far in 2024

Pennsylvania is set to be one of the key states in the November election, even more important than the rest of the purple states. Its unpredictability and attractive amount of electoral votes make it one of the most attractive prizes in the electoral college, for both Donald Trump  and Kamala Harris. In this competitive context, the Republican Party has reason to celebrate in the Keystone State.

Axios reported, the GOP registered more voters than Democrats so far in 2024, 94,603 new Republicans versus 87,325 new Democrats.

Republicans also prevailed in the number of registered voters for the month of July, the month that saw the attempted assassination of Trump in Butler (PA). According to a local State Department spokesman, the GOP added 19,127 new voters, while Democrats added 17,495.

Despite this trend, Democrats still outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania. As of August 2024, there are 3.9 million registered Democrats in the Keystone State, while Republicans total 3.5 million.

As for independent voters, a group that will likely end up defining the election, there are currently 1.3 million scattered across Pennsylvania, of which 76,000 were registered in 2024.

The importance of Pennsylvania in November

The Keystone State proves pivotal to both presidential campaigns. As recently reported by Ben Shapiro, and, based on analyses by Nate Silver, whoever wins Pennsylvania has a "95%" chance of winning the presidential election.

The latest Emerson College poll shows Trump resisting Harris' honeymoon period in Pennsylvania, with 49% voting intention against his rival's 48%.

"Likely Pennsylvania voters who belong to unions lean toward Harris by 15 points, 57% to 42%, while those who do not belong to a union and have no union members in the household lean toward Trump, 50% to 48%. Those with union members in the household lean toward Trump, 50% vs. 42%," explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

The Republican also has an advantage among independent voters with 48% versus 45% who would lean toward Harris.

As for the Senate races, the Democratic incumbent, Bob Casey, slightly stretched his lead over David McCormick. With less than three months to go before the election, Casey would currently get 48% to his rival's 44%, with 8% undecided.

"Since last month, support for Casey among likely voters has held steady at 48%, while support for McCormick among likely voters declined from 47% to 44%," Emerson College Polling commented.