Kyrsten Sinema withdraws from Senate race in Arizona, leaving a showdown between Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego

Kyrsten Sinema announced that she will not seek a second term in the Senate. The independent will leave the election in Arizona as a head-to-head between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake, the favorites to win the nomination of their respective parties.

The senator left the Democratic Party at the end of 2022, claiming that her state needed an "independent voice." Since then, although there was speculation about a potential three-way race, she had not confirmed whether he would opt for re-election. Her campaign had even raised about $16 million.

Sinema confirmed her intentions on Tuesday, through a video on social networks in which she announced that she would not seek re-election in November. "Because I choose civility, understanding, listening, working together to get stuff done, I will leave the Senate at the end of this year," she assured.

"Despite modernizing our infrastructure, ensuring clean water, delivering good jobs and safer communities, Americans still choose to retreat farther to their partisan corners. These solutions are considered failures either because they are too much, or not nearly enough. ... We’ve arrived at that crossroad, and we chose anger and division," the senator continued.

During her almost six-year career in the Senate, the moderate opposed Democratic leadership in key votes such as increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour and breaking the filibuster, which would have brought the floor to 51 votes to pass any legislation in the Senate. At the same time, she often negotiated legislation with her Republican colleagues, such as the immigration reform attempt that she developed at the time with Tom Tillis (R-N.C.) .

Faceoff between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake

With Sinema out of the race, the independent's successor will be either Gallego or Lake, the wide favorites to be their respective parties' nominees.

Gallego is a leftist in the style of Elizabeth Warren. Although he does not have official endorsements from his potential future colleagues, it is expected that he will eventually obtain the support of the aforementioned senator, as well as Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Ed. Markey (D-Mass.).

According to his platform, he supports raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, increasing taxes for “billion-dollar corporations” and assures that inflation is a "consequence of supply chain issues, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the conflict in Ukraine." He also took aim at "corporations" for their role in the inflation crisis.

On the other side is Lake, who rose to national fame for her run for governor of Arizona in 2022. I'm in this for us Arizonans, and when you elect me to the United States Senate, you are electing a mama bear on a mission to protect not just my kiddos, not just my babies. I want to protect Arizona, and I want to protect the United States of America. I promise I will make you proud," she expressed during the launch of her campaign.

The Republican has been endorsed by Donald Trump and Steve Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), who already indicated that he would only support candidates capable of winning a general election.

By that logic, Daines has already given the nod to , , Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and .

GOP voter enthusiasm for Lake is quite high, with her campaign even managing to raise over $2 million in its first three months .

The two already had a run-in at an airport, where she confronted him over the situation on the state's border.

What do the polls say?

The latest polls, excluding Sinema, show conflicting results. For example, the Rasmussen Reports poll puts Lake about three percentage points ahead of Gallego, while the Emerson College poll puts the Democrat up seven points.