GDP beats expectations with 3% growth in the second quarter

The week continues to be a triumphant ride for Donald Trump on the economic front. Following trade agreements reached last week with key partners like the EU and Japan, the Commerce Department announced that the country’s GDP grew by 3%, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

The world’s largest economy bounced back from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, surpassing analysts’ forecasts with a strong 3% annual growth between April and June—well above the 2.4% to 2.6% expansion expected by the markets.

Falling imports and rising consumer spending key

In a statement, the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that “the increase in real GDP in the second quarter mainly reflected a decline in imports, which are subtracted in the GDP calculation, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by declines in investment and exports.”

In other words, trade fluctuations in the face of tariff threats and the Federal Administration's negotiations with key partners have been key in explaining the second-quarter 2025 results.

Falling investment

In addition, the Bureau notes that "the rebound in real GDP in the second quarter was mainly due to falling imports and accelerating consumer spending, which were partially offset by falling investment."

On the other hand, “real final sales to private domestic buyers, which include consumer spending and private gross fixed investment, increased by 1.2% in the second quarter, compared to a 1.9% increase in the first quarter.”

Slowdown in price increases

The fall in prices is also highlighted: "The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 1.9% in the second quarter, compared to a 3.4% increase in the first quarter. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased 2.1 %, compared with a 3.7 % increase [between January and March]. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased by 2.5 %, compared with a 3.5 % increase" in the first three months of the year.