In the days following the 2020 presidential election, the outcome was still uncertain in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina. When all the votes were counted, the first four states went to Joe Biden while the last one went into the column of Donald Trump. Four years later, and with a rematch between the two as a likely scenario, the Democrat intends to capture each and every one of them.
The president's campaign is putting the Tar Heel State directly in its crosshairs this time around. He lost it in 2020 by just 1.34 percentage points, equaling 74.00 votes. It was the most challenging race against Trump in recent elections for Biden.
North Carolina was historically Democrat until 1968, when the victory of Richard Nixon began the Republican trend that continues to this day. For example, until Nixon's triumph against Humphrey, the Democratic Party recorded 28 wins against six losses in the presidential election.
From then on, the score has been 12 defeats and only two victories: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. However, Biden seems to assume he could be competitive in the state in 2024.
As it turns out, his defeat in 2020 was the best performance by a losing Democrat in North Carolina. In addition, in the 2022 midterm elections, supposedly a Red Wave year, Ted Budd (R) outperformed Cheri Beasley (D) by 3.2 points in the Senate race, a 50% decrease in the margin of victory from 2016.
Joe Biden's campaign sees a positive trend in his favor, fueled by discussion of abortion and Trump's influence on the ticket, coupled with population growth in big cities and suburbs.
"I think the road to reelection will run through North Carolina this time. And we’re encouraged by the [Biden] campaign’s early commitment to our state. It’s pretty clear that they have decided that North Carolina is going to be one of their targeted states ," Governor Roy Cooper (D), also a member of the president's national advisory council, confessed to POLITICO.
Cooper is evidence that the Biden campaign will use to believe that the Tar Heel State can re-elect a Democrat for president. The current governor was elected in 2016 and 2020.
"I told the president that this investment is going to be critical to his reelection, and that I believe we can win this state for him," he added.
Kevin Muñoz, spokesman for the campaign of "Jill's husband," as he describes himself, was equally optimistic.
"President Biden and Vice President Harris have a strong record that resonates with North Carolinians and will mobilize the voters we need to win in 2024, including creating thousands of jobs, lowering costs for families, and fighting against MAGA extremist abortion bans," he said.
"We fully expect North Carolina to be competitive, and plan to run an aggressive and winning campaign that builds on our significant investments throughout the state," he added.
In addition to the funds granted by the DNC, the conviction of the large donors will be fundamental in trying to defeat the Republican candidate, who begins as the favorite.
According to the polls released thus far, both Trump and DeSantis would prevail over Biden, although the president had led in previous polls.
Despite speculation and enthusiasm from the campaign and local leaders, the strategy will be laid bare in the coming months, when the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will decide how much money it will invest in each state.
"Set fire to the money"
On the other side of the aisle, the GOP is more than happy for Democrats to feel confident about their chances of winning in North Carolina, given that inversions are a zero-sum game. In other words, the DNC and other large donors would be investing in this state to stop investing in others.
"We are excited that the Biden campaign is investing in North Carolina, as Republicans always encourage Democrats to set fire to money in places where voters have soundly rejected them cycle after cycle," Emma Vaughan, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee (RNC) said in a statement.
Her theory is that it is better for Democrats to squander money in a state they think they can win, but which will ultimately see the GOP candidate victorious since they will then have less money to spend in other, more competitive states.
