Demographic winter: US population growth rate to slow to 0.1% in 2036
The US population is projected to reach 372 million by 2054, down 2.8 percent from last year's projections, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Ultrasound of a baby
A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) lowered the nation's population projections for the next 30 years. It is estimated that the US will reach 372 million residents in 2054, which is a decline of 2.8% from the previous year's projected figures (when the projected population was 383 million).
Over the last decade, the population growth rate showed a downward trend. Although the country is expected to reach 350 million by the end of 2025, the annual growth rate will remain at an average of 0.4% over the next decade.
It is estimated that from 2036 onwards, this rate could fall further, to 0.1% per year, reflecting a fertility rate that remains below the 'generational replacement' level (set at 2.1 children per woman). If these trends persist and policies are not implemented to encourage birth rates or increase immigration, the country could face a demographic contraction starting in 2033.
Immigration negatively influences native fertility
In 2023, the TFR of natives was 1.73 children per woman, while the combination of natives and immigrants raised this figure to just 1.80. Even if the proportion of immigrant women of childbearing age were doubled, the overall TFR would only increase to 1.87.
But beyond increasing birth rates, a negative effect of immigration on native fertility has been discovered. This is not a passing phenomenon. An analysis of the well-known 1980 "Mariel Boatlift" in Miami showed that, after the arrival of more than 125,000 Cuban immigrants, fertility in the city declined by 3.4% in the following years.
Beyond the direct impact, immigration negatively influences the fertility of natives, especially among the working class. Factors explaining this relationship include:
Pressure on wages and employment, such as competition with immigrant labor tends to reduce the wages and job stability of less-skilled workers; and rising housing costs, as immigration is linked to a rise in rental prices and home purchases, making it difficult for young couples to start a family.
Impact on Social Security
Beyond the demographic dimension, the slowdown in population growth will have repercussions on the economy and oncthe sustainability of the Social Security system.
A smaller labor force will mean lower tax revenues, which will make it more difficult to fund programs such as Social Security and Medicare. The CBO warns that without a sufficient influx of younger workers, the retirement-age population could outstrip the system's ability to sustain pensions and health care.
(CBO estimates include not only domestic residents, but also citizens and legal residents abroad who are entitled to benefits.)
An unprecedented historical trend
The sharp decline in the average number of children per woman is not only affecting the US, it has also revolutionized world demographics. Since 1965, when the total fertility rate reached 5.1 children per woman, a steady decline has been observed: 4.8 in 1970; 3.7 in 1980; 3.3 in 1990; 2.8 in 2000 and 2.3 in 2021.
This decline places the phenomenon in an unprecedented context. The worldwide crisis is such that the change in reproductive patterns is not limited to a specific region or group. Countries with traditionally low fertility rates (such as those in Europe and Japan) now coexist with nations that have adopted this pattern at a faster pace, including Turkey, Iran, South Korea, Colombia and Brazil.
The United Nations estimated that the world's population - which in 2017 hovered around 7.6 billion - would grow between 10 and 11 billion by 2100. However, more recent studies have revised these figures in a downward trend. The UN now forecasts a peak of 10.4 billion in the 2080s, while the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington projects that the population will peak at 9.5 billion around 2061 before beginning a serious decline.
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