"Red" alert: The number of Republican Senate seats at risk of falling into Democratic hands has doubled

The Senate electoral map has become more competitive for Republicans ahead of November's midterm election. The number of seats currently held by Republicans that are classified as a “Toss-Up” or leaning Democratic has risen from three in May to six.

This shift comes as the campaign enters its final stretch after Labor Day. According to the current classification by The Cook Political Report, six races are currently listed as a “Toss-Up”: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Five of those six seats are currently held by Republicans: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Michigan is held by Democrats.

The Cook Political Report revised its projections for Iowa and Texas on August 20, moving them from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up." The organization explained that, although both states present significant structural challenges for Democrats—Donald Trump won both by more than 13 points—public and private polls showed races that were more competitive than the previous category suggested.

Alaska had already been reclassified as a "Toss-Up" on July 1. Cook explained at the time that a state Supreme Court ruling would allow another candidate named Dan Sullivan to appear on the primary ballot, a situation that, according to the analysis, could take votes away from the current Republican senator, Dan Sullivan. The organization also cited the candidacy of Democrat Mary Peltola as another factor making the race competitive.

In its current classification, Cook also lists Maine and Ohio as “Toss-Ups.” The organization uses a seven-category scale to assess the competitiveness of elections, ranging from Solid Democrat to Solid Republican. The "Toss-Up" category corresponds to the races considered most competitive, in which either party has a significant chance of winning.