Who could replace Thom Tillis in the Senate? These are the leading candidates

In the wake of his vote against the "One Big, Beautiful Bill," Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) confirmed he will not seek re-election in 2026, leaving open a race that excites Democrats in North Carolina. Although the primaries that will define the Republican candidate are still some months away, some important names have already begun to emerge.

Tillis, former speaker of his state's House of Representatives, reached the Senate in January 2015 after defeating Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan. Six years later, she managed to survive an election cycle in which the Democratic Party regained control of the Senate.

Like many Republican incumbents in 2020, she beat poll forecasts and managed to defeat Cal Cunningham, who was blown up by an extramarital scandal late in the campaign.

While it may have seemed like just another win, Tillis managed to break a "curse" that haunted this seat for twenty years. The last time an incumbent won re-election was in 1996. This pattern was repeated with Elizabeth Dole and Hagan, both of whom were defeated in their bid for a second term.

Tillis' departure will cause Republicans to lose the benefits of having an incumbent in the race. Among them are name recognition, the ability to use Senate funds to travel to and within his state, easier fundraising, "Franking privilege" (the right to send official correspondence at no cost), government-paid employees, and the media coverage inherent in being a sitting senator.

In this context, an open election presents a more than interesting scenario for North Carolina Democrats. Given the difficult 2026 electoral map, Tillis' retirement presents the best opportunity for Democrats to steal a seat from Republicans. To that end, they are expected to nominate popular former governor Roy Cooper, who is already leading in early polls.

On the Republican side, here are some names already sounding like candidates.

Lara Trump

Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of President Donald Trump, had already flirted with the possibility of running for Senate in 2022, as well as a possible replacement for Marco Rubio in the Senate.

Due to her last name and her potential to raise money quickly, she starts as the favorite to secure the Republican nomination.

Trump is a graduate of North Carolina State University and currently hosts a talk show on Fox News. If she enters the race, she is not expected to have much competition for the nomination.

During a recent dialogue with reporters aboard Air Force One, the president already anticipated that he would be his first choice for the position.

However, she would have to move to the Tar Heel State to be a candidate, which would affect her life in Florida with young children.

Michael Whatley

The current chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) is another strong choice who appeared on the radar. In addition to his strong relationship with Trump and Republican donors, his past as chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party provided him with numerous connections that he could leverage in the 2026 election.

Michael Whatley was elected to the RNC in 2024, and under his leadership, the party managed to regain the White House and a majority in the Senate.

As reported by Politico, the White House views him as a "solid" candidate and one capable of uniting the various factions of the party. The president described him as a "smart, tough lawyer who put together a completely unprecedented electoral integrity operation."

Mark Meadows

While he has been away from the public scene, Mark Meadows' name has resurfaced as a potential candidate to replace Tillis' seat.

The 65-year-old Republican is well known in North Carolina. He was a member of the House of Representatives from 2013 to 2020, serving as chairman of the House Freedom Caucus. He rose to national fame in March 2020, when he became the last chief of staff of the first Trump administration.

He has since published an autobiography, "The Chief's Chief," and joined the Conservative Partnership Institute, an organization founded by former Senator Jim DeMint.

Despite the low profile he cultivated in recent years, he officiated as an informal interlocutor between the White House and congressional hardliners during negotiations for the "One Big, Beautiful Bill."

Hudson, Harrigan and other members of Congress

In the absence of a clear front-runner, several House Republicans are expected to enter the primary. Among them are Pat Harrigan, Greg Murphy and Richard Hudson, the current chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

The names of Destin Hall, the current speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, and Dan Bishop, a Trump ally and Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), also came up.

Former Congressman Mark Walker anticipated that he would not be a candidate, as he had been nominated to be Ambassador for International Religious Freedom.