Winsome Sears and Abigail Spanberger will face off for the governorship of Virginia in the most important election of the year

"Whenever something happens in Washington, whether it’s a Republican or Democratic administration, voters here tend to react to that and see that as a reflection of how their party is doing," journalist Mel Leonor said of the Virginia gubernatorial election. Indeed, these elections attract national attention once every four years, given that the Old Dominion State historically served as a thermometer on the performance of the president of the United States. In this case, Donald Trump.

Along with New Jersey, this election is seen as the first real popularity test for a president, with even greater interest when it is the White House tenant's first year in office. This has been particularly true in Virginia, given its demographics and tradition as a purple state, although in recent years the trend has been slightly Democratic.

Virginians have been in the habit of letting the president know of their displeasure for several decades. From 1970 to the present, only once has the winning gubernatorial candidate in Virginia been from the same party that held the White House. It was in 2013 when Democrat Terry McAuliffe defeated Republican Ken Cuccinelli by a margin of 2.5 percentage points.

In this context, the Republican Party hopes to make history on Nov. 4 by retaining the governorship of Virginia while controlling the White House.

Winsome Sears and Abigail Spanberger to face off in Virginia elections

Both parties' candidates for the election were recently confirmed. For the Democratic Party will go Abigail Spanberger, a former congresswoman who has experience working at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Spanberger managed to avoid a competitive primary that would cause her to lose steam heading into the general election and was confirmed as the Democratic nominee on April 3.

"Virginia is my home — it's where I grew up and where we chose to raise our three daughters. I’m just as invested in our Commonwealth’s future as you are, which is why I'll work tirelessly to strengthen our public schools, make Virginia a more affordable place to live, protect Virginia jobs, and defend our fundamental rights," she said on her X account.

On the other side is Winsome Earl-Sears, the current Republican lieutenant governor of Virginia. With an inspiring life story and appealing to "common sense," she presents herself as a continuation of the popular governor Glenn Youngkin, who already endorsed her ahead of the election.

Despite facing some opposition within the Republican Party, she managed to avoid a primary by being the only candidate who met the necessary requirements.

"I’m proud to officially be the Republican nominee for Governor of Virginia. We’ve made great progress over the past four years, but the fight for our Commonwealth is far from over. I’m ready to lead that fight and build a safer, stronger, more prosperous Virginia for every family," the lieutenant governor said.

The race looks competitive right off the bat. According to the Cook Political Report, the race is without a clear front-runner and is expected to be one of the closest of the year. At the same time, according to an Emerson College poll, the election is within the margin of error, with Spanberger just one point ahead of Sears.

"Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out. Support for Earle-Sears is found among male voters, who break for the lieutenant governor 52% to 37%, and white voters, who break for her 50% to 35%. Spanberger leads among women, 47% to 31%, and both older and young voters: those over 70, who break for Spanberger 46% to 43%, and those under 30, who break for her 43% to 33%," explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Whoever wins, Virginia will be electing its first female governor. In turn, in the event of a Republican victory in November, Sears would become the first Black woman governor in the United States.