Vote-by-mail ballots received in California after 5-N reduce the Republican majority in the House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is bracing for a legislature with the narrowest majority in 90 years. With the California 13th district race still uncalled—where Democrat Adam Gray leads by just 190 votes—the balance of power in the chamber would stand at 220-215. In this context, mail-in ballots received in the Sunshine State after Election Day have played a crucial role, enabling Blue Party candidates to secure two seats previously held by the GOP in the last legislative cycle

The incumbent, Michelle Steel, who currently holds the 45th District seat, has become the first casualty of this Golden State policy. The congresswoman is set to lose her seat to Democrat Derek Tran by a slim margin of just 600 votes—a result that, according to Anne Granger, a researcher tracking tight House races in Western states, “quite possibly” would not have occurred had ballots received after November 5 not been counted, as she told the California Globe.

Without the post-5-N mails, "Duarte would have won and Steel probably would have won too"

The slight doubts Granger expresses in Steel’s case are absent when discussing John Duarte’s situation in the 13th district. The Republican farmer would likely have secured re-election already if ballots received up to seven days after November 5—still being counted—had not been accepted. This has set the stage for a political battle between the two major parties over control of the seat.

"If there was no acceptance of mail-in ballots up to a week after, Duarte would have won and Steel probably would have won too.  RNC is really going to go after California on his. Democrats know that mail-in ballots favor them, so they’ll fight too. The GOP is doing everything they can to get cured vote signatures right now, but the mail-in ballot are what turned things around here last minute.”

After the results update on November 14, with 73% of the votes counted, Duarte was leading with 79,456 votes to Gray's 75,693—51.2% to 48.8%. These figures led some media outlets to declare the conservative the winner, while others expected him to maintain his lead in the next recount. However, a wave of mail-in ballots heavily favored Gray. By last Wednesday, the Democrat had managed to pull ahead, with 104,503 votes to Duarte’s 104,321. According to the latest AP update, Gray now leads the race with 104,991 votes, compared to 104,801 for the incumbent.

RNC takes California to court, demands “real election reforms” in state

Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, announced that they will take California to court over this situation: "It is absurd for California to accept ballots by mail up to 7 days after Election Day and take almost a month to count them. The RNC, along with the California Republican Party, will continue to fight aggressively to force all states to stop accepting ballots after Election Day."

RNC Chairman Whatley insisted that "Every vote in every state matters, and the RNC will work with our state parties and candidates to ensure election integrity across the country. It is clear that we need real election reforms to Protect the Vote in California."

Republicans May have a two-seat majority until special election

Holding the last contested seat is crucial to the balance of power in the House, especially in the first few months, until the special elections fill the vacancies left by Republicans Mike Waltz, Elise Stefanik, and Matt Gaetz. These races could result in a razor-thin margin of 217-215.