Thousands of migrants rush to the border: "They are fearful Trump will win reelection and close the border"

"Of course we would like to have the appointment (with the CBP) before the elections… If Donald Trump wins, say six immigrants in Chiapas, Mexico, he will close the border. They want to get there sooner.

Todd Bensman, a senior analyst at the Center for Immigration Studies who collected those testimonies, has undertaken a tour of hot spots in the migratory flow to North America in the final stretch to the presidential election 2024:

"A lot of the immigrants say that they are coming because they are fearful that Donald Trump will win the reelection and close the border. So there’s a Panic and urgency among the migrants to make the trip. To find some way to get to the American Border."

Bensman says the latter from the Suchiate River between Guatemala and Mexico. The high demand in recent weeks, he explains, drove up the price of the boats to cross the river and caught the attention of gangs, who turned their attention to the business.

Last Sunday alone, a caravan of migrants left southern Mexico for the United States. Estimates vary between 1,000 and 2,000 migrants. Some, in conversation with local journalists, admitted that the start of the U.S. elections ended up pushing them to undertake the dangerous journey.

In Mexico's hands?

Since Claudia Sheinbaum took office as Mexico's president at the beginning of the month, at least three caravans have formed. The first, on the same day of her swearing-in.

The Mexican government began to stop migrants heading to the US in southern cities (such as the cities in the state of Chiapas, where the migrants interviewed by Bensman were located). This is one of the setbacks imposed by the authorities after reaching an agreement with the Biden-Harris Administration in December, in their attempt to improve immigration numbers before Americans went to the polls.

In a recent report, the Department of Homeland Security acknowledged Mexico's pivotal role in the Biden-Harris efforts to improve its border crisis numbers. After it "peaked" in December 2023, DHS acknowledges, immigration slowed in 2024 "after Mexico restored and heightened these enforcement measures."

But, after a lull, the caravans have returned. And, according to Bensman, "the Mexican government is encouraging them." "The caravans that I traveled with were escorted by Mexican National Guard escorts, something that I have witnessed."

If it is true that immigrants are closely following the American vote, the same can be said of Sheinbaum.

Increase in Venezuelan emigration

Doubts about whether the door will remain open in the United States coincide with those of the future of the dictator Nicolás Maduro, in Venezuela.

Since Maduro was proclaimed winner of the presidential elections in July, the number of Venezuelans leaving for countries such as Colombia, Brazil and the United States has increased.

After those elections and increased repression, Venezuelans now represent 80% of those crossing the Darien Gap, a dangerous mountainous and jungle-like stretch of land between Colombia and Venezuela that serves as a passage to the U.S. border.

The caravans don't believe Harris

Border decontrol is one of the Republican candidate's strong points. His promises to control the border yield favourable responses among the general population and, more specifically, Hispanics.

In response, in addition to the Mexico deal, Kamala Harris has promised stricter measures if she occupies the Oval Office. Immigrants walking the southern border, however, don't seem to believe her:

"I love Kamala Harris," "If after election day [Harris is elected], we know that everything is good, then we can enter," said two in a recent Daily Mail article. Beyond those testimonials, the increased flow to the southern border shows that, with their feet, illegal immigrants are siding with Harris.