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Here are the five key races that could change the future of the House of Representatives

Democrats seek to regain the majority they lost in the 2022 midterm elections.

Democrats need to win six new seats to regain majority in House/ Tom Brenner.AFP

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Democrats aim to take back the House of Representatives in November. The Democratic leadership hopes to capitalize on the GOP's November internals and regain control they lost two years ago. Among the 19 competitive races, there are five that could define the fate of the House for the next Congress.

The Republican Party currently holds a majority with only four seats, one of the tightest in recent history.

According to pollster Sabato's Crystal Ball, 205 seats currently lean Democratic, while 211 are shaping up to be more Republican. With 218 congressmen needed for a majority, close races will become very important in November.

Specifically, there are five seats that could ultimately define which party retains the majority in the House, currently held by the following congressmen:

  • Mary Peltola (D-AK)
  • Michelle Steel (R-CA)
  • Mike Lawler (R-NY)
  • Derrick Van Orden (R-WI)
  • Katie Porter (D-CA)

As for Peltola, he flipped a seat in 2022 that had been Republican since 1972 and will have to defend that feat against Nick Begich III. While the race was Democratic-leaning, Sabato's Crystal Ball recently moved it to its "unpredictable" column.

Steel and Lawler have the misfortune of representing districts that Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election, automatically making them soft targets for the Democratic leadership, and which a lot of money is being poured into both races.

Lawler, whose district voted for Biden by ten percentage points in 2020, was favored by the latest update from the aforementioned pollster. They moved his race from "unpredictable" to "Republican-leaning."

Steel's actuality is exactly the other way around since they moved his choice from "Republican-leaning" to "unpredictable."

Van Orden sees his re-election bid becoming increasingly competitive, with Democrat Rebecca Cooke nipping at his heels in the polls. Cooke even came out first in the latest poll released by House Majority PAC. However, Wisconsin's 3rd District remains Republican-leaning and Donald Trump is expected to win by at least four points.

Finally, there is California's 47th District, held by Katie Porter, who decided not to seek re-election to run for the Senate, a race in which she was defeated by Adam Schiff. This open election will be contested by Dave Min (D) and  Scott Baugh (R), who already tried to reach Congress in 2022.

When it comes to making an overall prediction, Sabato's Crystal Ball has both parties with a 50% chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives.

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