On the eve of the debate, Trump beats Harris in an NYT national poll

Donald Trump overtook Kamala Harris in a nationwide poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. On the eve of the first presidential debate between the two, to be held Tuesday night, Sept. 10, the Republican regained the lead after his Democratic opponent.

The poll, conducted among likely voters across the country, showed Trump ahead with 48% of the voting intention, barely ahead of Harris' 47%. The gap between the two is so close that it is within the margin of error, reaffirming the trend that November's presidential election will be a close one.

"To me, the result is a bit surprising. It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls," Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the Times, expressed in this regard.

At the same time, the political analyst referred to Kamala Harris' honeymoon stage during August, which seems to have ended after the Democratic National Convention. Since the close of the event in Chicago, the vice president has seen her level of support stagnate while Trump has begun to recover in the polls.

Why did Trump retake the lead nationally?

Cohn also sought to explain why the Republican regained the lead nationally. According to his analysis, there are three factors to consider: he is more popular than before, has an advantage on these issues and occupies the center.

Regarding the first of the topics, the former president has higher popularity ratings compared to 2016 and 2020. Currently, his positive image is 46%.

Additionally, voters trust Trump more than Harris to handle priority issues. According to the NYT, the Republican "has a five-point lead on the issue voters care most about, whatever it is."

"A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is 'not too far' to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s 'too far to the right.' Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s 'not too far either way,'” Cohn stated.