Democratic establishment and media jubilation over Kamala isn't reaching voters: still no improvement over Biden

The over-the-top explosion of joy and jubilation projected from the Democratic establishment and media is not reaching voters. A fortnight after the domestic coup that ultimately unseated Biden as the blue party's nominee, Kamala's poll numbers continue to do no better than those of the president prior to his disastrous debate with Donald Trump on CNN.

According to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, the Republican candidate is 1.2 points ahead of Kamala in a head-to-head matchup. Donald Trump has the support of 47.7% of voters, compared to 46.5% for the leftist candidate.

These figures are within the usual range of the difference between her predecessor and Trump himself before the fateful June 27. Before, and although Trump has always led the race, the distance between the two moved between a margin of two tenths and 2.3 points during 2024. What's more, for much of June, before the on-air disaster, Biden managed a technical tie with the Republican, with a razor-thin difference of just 0.3%.

Biden bests Kamala's numbers in much of 2024 before the CNN debacle

Marching 1.2 points behind Trump is, to date, the best score for Kamala, who began her candidacy 3.1 points behind the conservative. Despite the gap narrowing, most polls still show the Republican candidate as the winner next November. Even the Reuters poll - the first to put the vice president ahead, with a two-point difference - has halved this lead, which this week is only one point.

In fact, Kamala barely wins in three of the last 10 polls published. In two of them, the one cited from Reuters and another from Morning Consult, she does so by only one point. The Daily kos/Civiqs study, the most favorable, increases the lead to 4.

According to Polymarket, the vice president continues to narrow her lead, though she doesn't end up improving on Biden's numbers prior to his CNN debacle either. At the moment, 54% believe that the former president will return to the White House, while 45% believe it will be Kamala who occupies the Oval Office.

However, if independent candidates are added, Trump's advantage plummets to 0.3%. Robert F. Kennedy marches in third place, taking 6% of the vote. However, most polls again show the Republican as the winner.

Nate Silver's warning: nothing guarantees that Kamala's numbers will continue to grow

As if it weren't enough that Kamala's slow rise in the polls is still light years away from the enthusiasm that she intends to convey from the Democratic party and is not enough for her to overtake Trump, the creator of the aggregator 538 , Nate Silver, alerts the blue party of another aspect to keep in mind: nothing guarantees that the vice president's numbers will continue to grow. Right now, this site's projections roughly agree with Polymarket, giving the Republican candidate a 54.9% chance of winning versus Harris' 44.6%.