A new start with 100 days to go until the election
The Democratic coup that killed Biden's candidacy and catapulted Kamala Harris to the top completely changes the electoral scenario with little more than three months to convince voters.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
With exactly 100 days left until the presidential election in November, the Democratic establishment's coup to overthrow Joe Biden and elevate Kamala Harris has both major parties practically back to square one. The Blue Party's front-runner change has allowed them to virtually return to where they were in the polls prior to the CNN face-off, but the conservative challenger continues to lead and it remains to be seen how the vice president will perform once the initial fervor has passed.
Thus, Polymarket projections indicate that Trump comes into the one-hundred days before the election with 57% of the vote, while Kamala remains at 40%. These figures are lower than those of Biden before his downfall live on CNN. The Republican candidate, moreover, would remain ahead in five of the six swing states, with Michigan being the only one in which the Democratic challenger would be ahead.
Polymarket election projection.
Real Clear Politics gives an average lead of 1.7 points to Trump
According to the poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, the race between both candidates shows Trump 1.7 points ahead of his rival. These numbers barely reduce the gap with Biden by one point after his disastrous performance in the CNN debate and by one and a half points compared to the largest difference between the candidates (3.4 points on July 7), and do not explain the Democrats' elation with the establishment's coup to position Kamala Harris as a challenger to the Republican candidate. As was the case with Polymarket, the president's numbers before the debate were better than Kamala's now, according to this page.
Average Biden-Kamala polls 100 days before the election.
Kamala isn't quite getting off the ground, according to polls
Most of the polls that have been coming out during Kamala's first week in charge point equally to the victory of the Republican candidate by a narrow margin. Thus, The Wall Street Journal gives him 2 points more (49%-47%), as does the poll conducted by Forbes/HarrisX (51%-41%), while the The New York Times with Siena left the gap at 1 in favor of the Republican (48-47).
In wider margins in favor of the conservative is CNN (49-46), although the most favorable for Trump was the Rasmussen Reports, which rated the gap between the two at 7 points (50%-43%). By contrast, Reuters - although with a sample clearly bias in favor of Democratic voters - and Morning Consult indicated that Kamala led the race.
Who does Kennedy hurt the most?
However, some of the latest polls, such as the NYT or WSJ point to the presidential candidacy of Kennedy, West or Stein giving a one-point victory to the vice president.
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