Polls war: NYT positions Harris above Trump, but other polls show a different scenario

There is a polling war going on, and the one who seems best positioned at the moment is Vice President Kamala Harris, who is leading in three key states as revealed by a poll by The New York Times/Siena.

According to the NYT, Harris leads Trump by four points in three key states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

According to the newspaper, polls conducted from August 5 to 9 show Harris ahead of Trump with 50% to 46%. The newspaper said this is the latest evidence of the dramatic shift in the polls since President Joe Biden stepped down, with Democrats gaining ground ahead of the November election.

"The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden," the NYT reported.

If accurate, the poll means a breath of oxygen for Democrats, since Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are three of the six or seven swing states that could mean a path to victory in the electoral college. A setback in one of these states would radically tilt the advantage in favor of Trump, who appears to have the edge in swing states such as Georgia, Arizona or Nevada.

The NYT also revealed that, despite Harris' improved standing over Biden's sluggish performance in the polls, voters remain keenly aware of the vice president's weaknesses on issues that matter to voters, which could change the numbers as the days pass.

"Still, the results show vulnerabilities for Ms. Harris. Voters prefer Mr. Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race," the newspaper reviewed.

Other polls show a different scenario

While the NYT positions Harris above Trump in Pennsylvania, The Trafalgar Group positioned the former president slightly above the Democratic vice president in this swing state.

According to The Trafalgar Group, the Republican front-runner leads Harris by just over a percentage point in Pennsylvania, 45.9% versus 44.4%, a figure within the margin of error.

Likewise, the Trump campaign can still say that, despite Harris' political momentum, a summary of national polls reviewed by The Hill still shows a technical tie between Trump and Harris: 47.4% versus 47.2% in favor of the Republican.

A day earlier, on August 9, IPSOS released a poll showing Harris and Trump technically tied in seven key states, a figure that reflects the parity between the two candidates.

The seven key states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

In the poll, conducted between July 31 and Aug. 7, IPSOS outlined Harris receiving 42% of the vote in the seven key states, compared to Trump's 40% and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy's 5%.

Harris's current strong showing in the polls is due to a significant boost for the vice president. Following the selection of her running mate, Tim Walz, all her party leaders endorsed her candidacy, and major donors renewed their support. They returned to contributing financially to her campaign after stopping donations in protest of Biden.