Iowa paves the way for the Republican candidate who will fight in November to become the 47th president of the United States. In the midst of a brutal winter storm, with a thermal sensation of 45 degrees below zero, it is not expected that many will dare to approach the electoral districts to cast their vote for their favorite candidate. In recent years, only Donald Trump, in 2020, was the winner in this State that ended up becoming the conservative electoral ticket for the presidential elections. However, its importance in screening and highlighting the situation of the non-favorites is fundamental. This year, with the former president far ahead in the surveys, it remains to be seen if the "shaky" advantage of Nikki Haley -even with the possible doping of Democratic sympathizers who registered to vote for her - will defeat the "loyal" followers of Ron DeSantis in the fight for second place.
TRUMP: "You must go caucus tomorrow...You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog...even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 15, 2024
Haley, favorite of the anti-Trump against the "loyal" followers of DeSantis in Iowa
On this occasion, one of the candidates, Trump, arrives with a record advantage (28 points) over his pursuers, according to the final survey published last Sunday. Haley arrives in second position, but stands on "shaky ground" with 61% of her voters still unconvinced, something that may weigh heavily on her, taking into account the extreme climate situation in the region to encourage her supporters to approach her constituency. In her favor she can count the withdrawal of Cris Christie, whose anti-Trump voters may turn towards her, and the move of some Democratic voters who could take advantage of last-minute registration to register and vote for her. On the contrary, DeSantis' hope lies in the fact that his followers, who are the most willing to vote no matter what happens, allow him to turn the result around, at least in relation to second place.
Unlike other states, primaries in Iowa are not limited to putting out ballot boxes in which registered voters cast their votes throughout the day or even allowing early voting. In the Hawkeye State, the first to indicate who they prefer as a candidate since the 1970s, those who want their election to add up must physically go to their electoral district at the same time - this year it will be at 7 pm central time-, where they will follow the candidates' speeches, fill out the voting forms and can stay to follow the counting of the votes.
Only Trump won Iowa and the final nomination in the last 15 years
This means that, historically, participation in the Iowa primaries is small, so the results can be surprising, benefiting the candidates who, even trailing in the polls, pamper the voters of this State. This has meant that, on many occasions, the winner in this territory is not the final nominee. Thus, Ted Cruz won in 2016 (the nominee was Trump), Rick Santorum in 2012 (Mitt Romney) and Mike Huckabee in 2008 (John McCain), none of whom ultimately competed for the White House. Iowans, however, assure that their role is not to choose the official candidate, but rather to screen the candidates.
Another of Iowa's peculiarities is its population. The Hawkeye State has more white and older residents than the country's average, so it does not represent the rest of the demographic groups. That is one of the reasons why the Democrats, whose electorate has a large percentage of non-whites and young people, have decided to reduce the primaries in this territory to one more on Super Tuesday, beginning their electoral process in South Carolina.
