Presidential election 2024: Drop in Democratic voters in three key states

Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina are experiencing sharp declines in Democratic voter registration compared to 2020 data.

Democrats are losing ground in several states that could become decisive in the upcoming presidential election. According to voter registration records, between 2020 and 2024, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania lost registered Democrats, with the number of registered Republicans rapidly gaining ground.

The three states were already hotly contested during the last 2020 elections. Biden won Pennsylvania and Nevada by 1.16% and 2.39%, respectively. In North Carolina, Trump was victorious, albeit by a slim margin of 1.35%.

Pennsylvania has lost more than 336,000 registered Democrats from Nov. 3, 2020 to April 2024, according to state election data collected by The Daily Caller. Democrats went from more than 4.2 million to 3.8 million registered voters. The margin over Republicans is now only 397,241 registered voters, almost half of what it was in 2020.

Following this same trend, there are fewer registered Democrats in North Carolina comparing data from November 2020 with the latest available. There were 2.6 million for the last presidential election, while at the beginning of April, there were 2.4 million. This means the state lost over 200,000 registered Democrats, which reduces the margin over Republicans to just 180,000 voters.

Nevada's number of registered Democrats also experienced a drop of 27,757. The party now has a 55,116 voter lead over Republicans in the swing state, compared to its 2020 lead of 96,875.

Advantage for Trump in the polls

Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania were all key battleground states in the last election, as they were in 2016, 2012 and 2008. The state with the most stable results, despite always being close, is Nevada, where Democrats have won each presidential election since 2008.

One would have to go back to George W. Bush's campaign in 2004 to see the state turn red. North Carolina, which has not always been a swing state, has had somewhat more predictable results in the past in favor of Republicans. Since 1980, Democrats have only won the state once.

Current polls are favorable to Donald Trump in two of the three aforementioned states which saw a drop in registered Democrats. According to 270toWin, which averages the latest polls for each state, Trump is projected to win in Nevada and North Carolina, but not in Pennsylvania.

In Nevada, he gets 46% of votes, compared to Biden's 42%. In North Carolina, he is projected 48% of votes, which represents a 4.2-point advantage over Biden. Finally Joe Biden, with 43% of the total, is predicted to win by 2 points over Trump in Pennsylvania.