On Friday, as the afternoon fell on Buenos Aires, the Argentine Congress approved in general terms the Bases Law, popularly known as the omnibus law, a staple for brand new president Javier Milei. The bill obtained 149 votes in favor and 109 votes against. While the vote on each particular article will begin Tuesday, it is worth saying that the bill has advanced to a new phase.
The Bases Law originally had more than 600 articles, but the tedious, tacky and confusing discourse, added to the convoluted negotiations with deputies and governors, implied so many cuts that turned the project into a shadow of Milei’s original intention, being reduced to less than 300, with more modifications yet to come from this weekend's negotiations. It is the end of a bittersweet week for the government, because the achievement is fragile and imprecise, and there is still the risk that "the political caste" will turn it into an empty shell. For example, opening Tuesday's session will depend on 129 deputies providing a quorum and maintaining it during the particular vote.
However, the success achieved in the Congress of Deputies has enormous symbolic value given the nature of the project, a fact that demonstrates that the spirit of the times and the dismantling of the Argentine political class have created favorable conditions for the libertarian government. A proper evaluation of the strategy for addressing such a wide range of issues and the curious selection of priorities will remain for later. Likewise, it will be up to the president to weigh the effectiveness and worth of his heterogeneous group of collaborators, whose erratic actions often resulted in the ability to hinder those of his opponents.
A winding road ahead
With just a handful of his own deputies, Milei obtained 144 votes, meaning that the majority of legislators supported him despite the fact that the libertarian ideology was repudiated until just a few months ago. Politicians know that what the president lacks in Congress, he has plenty of with his fervent base, fed up with the failure of non-Peronist governments and the constant threat of union corporatism.
A tortuous debate awaits the ruling party in the particular vote, and there still exists the risk that the Senate will introduce more modifications and the project will have to return to the deputies. There, the regional governors are much more powerful.
“The moment for debate is over,” read a statement from the Casa Rosada before the vote, showing the government's annoyance with the “allies” who, despite all the changes granted, continued to go back and forth with the approval of the text. “It is time for the representatives of the people to decide if they are on the side of the freedom of Argentines or on the side of the privileges of caste and the corporate republic," summarized the president, attempting to take on the bill’s dissenters. But the tug of war has just begun. A tortuous debate awaits the ruling party in the particular vote, and there still exists the risk that the Senate will introduce more modifications and the project will have to return to the deputies. There, the regional governors are much more powerful.
That is why over the weekend, beyond the rupturist rhetoric, the government will have to pamper the governors’ representatives, who demand more and more funding and who maintain that they are not going to vote for privatization or delegated powers if there is no money in exchange for the provinces. The government will have to train its political waist if it does not want to arrive on Tuesday with an opposition conspiracy that blows up its plan for fiscal balance.
The person in charge of the negotiations is Minister Francos, a controversial figure who for some is a valid moderator and for others a nuisance. This week, Francos was at the center of a controversy because, according to the governors, sharing the PAIS tax was going to be discussed, causing President Milei himself to reject that proposal outright on social media. The Tax for an Inclusive and Solidary Argentina (PAIS) is a tax aberration that is paid on operations in foreign currency. This is a tax that was imposed due to “emergency” and remained. It applies to the purchase of foreign currency, card expenses in foreign currency and tourist services abroad. The tax was born to discourage people from buying dollars, but it became a great source of resources for the government. The issue is on the table, and the governors asked Francos to distribute 30% of the tax.
The consortium between Kirchnerism and the left is like a bag full of cats who hate each other and yet have no choice but to align.
As the week comes to a close, Argentine politics are overexposed, the consortium between Kirchnerism and the left is like a bag full of cats who hate each other and yet have no choice but to align. They have acted alienated. They were the visible face of the ongoing street violence, and with this, they did nothing more than to exacerbate their tiny but angry base that, without defined leadership, remains bewildered that they no longer have the effectiveness and power they did a few years ago. One example is that Deputy Máximo Kirchner tried to gain political capital by standing with the protesters against the police. However, he only received backlash from those same protesters and had to be evacuated because his safety was at risk.
The presence of Kirchnerism in the streets was scarce, but on the other hand, the violent demonstrators from the hard left even incorporated foreign militants, a practice that has been seen in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and the rest of the region. Special mention should be made to the fact that among the 20 or so people arrested for crimes committed during the demonstration outside the Congress (fires, destruction to public walkways, violence toward legislators and attacks on police officers) there were two Chilean citizens, who journalists connected to the indigenous terrorist groups that plague both Chile and Argentina. These groups, which are made up of criminals of various nationalities, need to be investigated given the danger they pose to South American democracies.
Acá está el chileno detenido. pic.twitter.com/9s5m0qU3h4
— Pregonero (@PregoneroL) February 3, 2024
The debate also confirmed what has been known since the elections, the Together for Change party has disintegrated, and its spectrum is suffering from a crisis of ideology and leadership. Macri has gone from support to intrigue trying to stay afloat and emphasizing the independence of his party with respect to Milei's management, speculating that a failure by the president would leave him stuck and a success would be difficult to capitalize on. But Milei seems to be more willing to absorb former Macristas than other libertarians. In fact, the officials who received the most support in recent days were Patricia Bullrich, president of the PRO party, and Luis Caputo, former Macrista minister and today head of the mega-ministry of economy. It is an uncomfortable paradox for Milei and Macri.
The radicals are also undergoing a confusing reconfiguration. The contradictory speeches and votes in relation to the project from members of the same party exhibit this change. Amidst this mess, Milei is managing to dominate politics despite his inexperience, mistakes and the lack of strong political advisors, precisely because his star is shining while the others are going out. What lies in front of him are not political projects, not even strong parties or coalitions, but rather corporate monopolies, shock groups managed by the ‘piquetero’ mafia and castro-chavismo, provinces that are mostly enclaves with very poor democratic quality, and business lobbies that are infected by protectionism. These are the powers that will enter into contention starting Tuesday, when the fine print will be debated in detail. It will be seen who will twist whose arm.
