As the troops of the Wagner group began to halt on the road they set out on Friday towards Moscow, their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, remained silent.
The weekend riot ended with an opaque agreement brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. One of the few details that emerged from the pact is that Prigozhin would go into exile on Belarusian territory. Several reports indicate that he is already there.
People of Rostov taking pictures with Prigozhin just before he left the city and was forced into exile in Belarus.
They seem quite fond of a guy whose troops killed 13 pilots of the Russian Air Force on the same day. pic.twitter.com/iMsWXZ5NFw
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 25, 2023
Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin's press secretary, announced that no criminal charges would be brought against members of the group who staged the uprising. This comes despite the fact that the Federal Security Service (SFB) had initiated a case against Prigozhin that could have ended with a sentence of up to 20 years behind bars.
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that criminal charges against #Prigozhin will be dropped. Other #Wagner members will likewise not be prosecuted for their participation. Prigozhin agreed to move to #Belarus.
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) June 24, 2023
What will happen to Prigozhin? "It is not yet clear what Lukashenko is going to do with Prigozhin," Belarusian opposition figure in exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said in remarks picked up by AP.
Tsikhanouskaya opined that the decision would cause even more instability in Belarus, and recalled that Minsk "detained 33 Wagner mercenaries before the 2020 elections."
Bringing the war criminal Prigozhin to #Belarus adds another element of instability. We can't forget how Lukashenka arrested 33 Wagner mercenaries before the 2020 elections. Belarus doesn't need more criminals & thugs, it needs justice, freedom & security for our people. pic.twitter.com/j8ToJbboBu
— Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) June 25, 2023
Belarusian politician and advisor Franak Viačorka noted that his country was not "Prigozhin’s dream destination." He argued that there were three possible scenarios: that Belarus would become Wagner's center of operations, that Prigozhin would rise as the leader of the offensive in Ukraine, or that he would be offered a "retirement job."
Prigozhin, however, could choose to leave Belarus. One possible destination would be Africa, where his mercenary entourage exploits natural resources and fights against local regimes.
Future of the Wagner Group
"For Wagner, this looks that it might be the end," opined Syracuse University researcher Brian Taylor, speaking to Al Jazeera.
"Wagner troops who did not particpate in this uprising are going to be integrated into the Ministry of Defense," the expert claimed, and then added:
Everyone else is apparently being dismissed but not charged.
“Russia's Crony Capitalism” author Anders Åslund noted that losing the mercenaries will be a significant departure for the Russian military, even warning that "it is difficult to believe that Putin will survive the mess he that has created for so long."
5. Russia has lost at least 25k able Wagnerites, weakening its troops.
6. It is difficult to believe that Putin will survive the mess that he has created for long.
7. Whether he sacks Shoigu & Gerasimov or keep them, he will appear weakened.— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) June 25, 2023
The only certainty for the time being, is that Russia will resume the fight against Ukraine. Even Wagner’s position on the African continent could be threatened, according to Florida International University professor John F. Clark.
Before the coup was deflated, Clark argued that Wagner would only maintain its international status if Putin was overthrown. If Prigozhin's private army lost, on the other hand, it would most likely pass under the command of the regular military, losing the freedom to operate as a private militia.
"My view is that Wagner is likely to continue to bring misery to the African continent in multiple forms," the professor of politics and international relations wrote, however.
No outsiders are likely to stop it. Its presence will continue also because individual African actors, state and non-state, benefit from its presence. Its utility to certain regimes helps explain the African Union’s conspicuous silence on the menace it poses. The passivity towards Wagner also reflects a deeper ambivalence about Russia and Russian imperialism.
