Hispanics are moving away from Joe Biden and towards Donald Trump in the months leading up to the 2024 presidential elections. This was revealed by a Latina Axios-Ipsos survey with Noticias Telemundo.
"In almost every case, Trump performs better than the Republican brand and Biden performs worse than the Democratic brand," said Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson.
The survey revealed that Biden's advantage over Trump among all Latinos has fallen from 29 points after Biden's first year in office (53-24) to just 9 points (41-32), due to concern over inflation and crime. Biden only has a 3-point advantage among Latinos who plan to vote in November.
Latinos gave Trump a 22-point edge over Biden when it comes to dealing with the economy, and an 11-point edge on fighting crime. Trump is showing improvement among Latinos even though 52% of survey respondents said they worry that a mass deportation effort like what he's proposed would target all Latinos, regardless of immigration status.
A poll released in February also showed that Hispanics are no longer loyal Democrats. The Gallup study revealed that the Democratic party's advantage among Hispanic adults and adults ages 18 to 29 has decreased by nearly 20 points over the past three years.
Currently, it is estimated that 36 million Hispanics will be able to vote in the next elections.
"Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English,” Gallup explained.
These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023.
