On Tuesday, Nov. 15, the world's projected population reached 8 billion. In an era in which everything is quantified, this is the date the United Nations expects the world population to leap past a new milestone. The United Nations Population Fund website welcomes the data with the slogan "A World of Infinite Possibilities."
Just as choosing the day is partly arbitrary, choosing who exactly would be the world's 8 billionth citizen amongst all those born on Tuesday is even more so. However, the child already has a name: Damian, born at Nuestra Señora de la Altagracia in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
The world welcomes its 8 billionth citizen at a time in which man is seen as a predator of resources and an emitter of greenhouse gases. We are a billion more people than we were just 11 years ago. Is this good news or not?
Changing the capitalist model for its alternative
The United Nations Population Fund's official view says that the news is maybe bad: "We need to rethink the models of economic growth and development that have led to overconsumption and fueled violence, exploitation, environmental degradation, and climate change."
The idea behind such statements is that we humans create trouble, and that as the population multiplies, so do the world's problems. There underlying idea is that we can change the way we organize society, that perhaps there is an alternative to capitalism. The UN does not name this alternative, but when it says it wants to "rethink the models of economic growth and development that have led to excessive consumption," what it is proposing is to move towards socialism.
Some disagree. This is the opinion of Elon Musk:
Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming
- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 26, 2022
Population growth
Is lower consumption better? Is greater poverty better? Are people only consumers and predators, or do we also bring a creative element that contributes to progress?
In the year 200, there were 190 million people in the world. That population did not double until the 15th century. The 1400s saw significant population growth, but by 1700 the population still barely exceeded 600 million. It is then, in the 18th century, when there was a truly accelerated increase in population.
The world's population exceeded 1 billion in 1800, and it ballooned to 2 billion by 1927. Although rapidly increasing in number, the growth rate has fallen sharply. In the decades from the 1950s to the 1980s, the rate hovered around 2% per year, and since the 1990s it has fallen sharply to about half that, now sitting at 1.05%. It is estimated that we will reach 10 billion by the middle of the 21st century and that growth will plateau within the next 80 or so years.
Poverty
An important question is if this population growth been accompanied by a diminished quality of life. Critics acknowledge that this is not the case. The farthest they would go is to say is that consumption is, in their opinion, "excessive." But how has the world evolved in recent decades?
In 1990 there were 5.3 billion people, and 37.81% lived on $2.15 a day, in 2017 prices. The latest data is from 2019, and just 8.7% live below that threshold. Despite population growth, the number of people living below the poverty line has also fallen: from 2 billion to 668 million, according to World Bank data aggregated by Our World in Data.
Life expectancy
In 1800, the world's average life expectancy was 28.5 years. In 1870, it had risen to 29.7 years, although in Europe it had already reached 36.2. By 1900, life expectancy in Europe was 42.7 years, and 32 in the world as a whole.
The 20th century saw the greatest growth in population. It is also the century that saw a revolution in life expectancy. By the mid-century, it had risen to 45.7 years, and in Europe, it was 62. In the last year for which data are available, life expectancy in the world had skyrocketed to 72.6 years, and in Europe, it had reached 78.6.
Health
Average height, as an indicator of human health, has also risen. In 1900, when there were 1.6 billion people, the average height of men was just above 5-foot-4, and of women about 4-foot-11. The height had risen by 3.5 inches for men by 1996, and by 3.1 inches for women. Pollution, which increased with the industrial revolution, has fallen dramatically. In 1990 there were 156 pollution-related deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and today there are just 85.
Development
Per capita income is easy to measure, although its interpretation over time can be problematic. It is a relevant criterion, but the United Nations wanted to enrich the measurement of development with a better indicator, which it calls the Human Development Index.
In 1870, the United Kingdom had an index of 0.21, and South Korea (then called just Korea) had an index of 0.02. In 2015, the United Kingdom had risen to 0.76 points, and South Korea to 0.85.
Hours worked
Work has the character of a biblical curse, but it is a condemnation that becomes less as we become richer and richer. In 1870, the average person in the United States worked 3,096 hours per year. In 2017 average yearly hours worked had dropped to 1,757.
Literacy
In 1800, 87.95% of the population was illiterate. By 2016, that figure had plummeted to just 13.75%. Analyzing Spain, the United Kingdom, and Germany, three of the main book producers in history, shows just how publishing has improved in recent centuries.
Measured in titles per million inhabitants, in 1941 Spain and the United Kingdom had more than 150 titles, and Germany had close to 270 titles. In 1996, the last year for which data are available for the three countries, 873 titles per million inhabitants were published in Germany and more than 1,000 in the other two countries.
