The Palestinian Emirates Plan: An Israeli academic's proposal as an alternative to the two-state solution

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a central issue in geopolitical discussions for decades, with the two-state solution as the dominant proposal for resolving it.

Recently, The Wall Street Journal reported that five prominent Arab Muslim sheikhs from the Hebron area of the West Bank have signed a letter pledging peace and full recognition of Israel as a Jewish state.

This development, although it has generated controversy, appears to be a step taken toward the proposal from Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a leading Israeli academic specializing in Arab culture and a former military intelligence officer, which constitutes a radical alternative known as the Palestinian Emirates Plan or the Eight-State Solution.

This plan seeks to replace the idea of a unified Palestinian state with the creation of multiple emirates based on the tribal structures of the region, arguing that this structure better aligns with the sociological and cultural reality of the Middle East.

Rationale for the Palestinian Emirates Plan

Dr. Kedar bases his proposal on the premise that the Western-style nation-state concept is incompatible with the social structure of the Middle East, where tribal loyalty trumps national identity. According to Kedar, countries such as Syria, Iraq and Libya have faced instability due to the artificial imposition of borders by colonial powers that ignored tribal dynamics. In contrast, states such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), based on homogeneous tribal structures, have demonstrated stability.

Kedar argues that the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza does not constitute a homogeneous group, but is divided into clans and tribes with significant cultural, historical and linguistic differences. For example, a woman from Ramallah would rarely marry someone from a rival clan in Nablus, reflecting social fragmentation. Rather than imposing a unified solution, Kedar proposes to take advantage of these tribal divisions to create independent political entities that reflect local realities.

The structure of Kedar's plan

Kedar's plan identifies eight areas in the Palestinian-controlled territories that could become independent emirates, each centered on a major city with its own tribal leadership structure: the Gaza Strip, Jenin, Nablus, Ramallah, Jericho, Tulkarem, Qalquilya and the Arab part of Hebron.

Each emirate would control its city and surrounding lands, with autonomy to decide its form of government, laws, education, currency, media, trade and industry. According to Kedar, this decentralization would allow each community to preserve its tribal and cultural identity, reducing the internal conflicts that have characterized factions such as Hamas and Fatah. Israel, for its part, would annex areas with small Arab populations, granting Israeli citizenship to Palestinians residing in those areas.

Kedar notes that Gaza already functioned as a de facto emirate under Hamas control, with institutions such as a judiciary, a Ministry of Education and security forces. Extending this model to other Palestinian cities, he believes, would be more realistic than trying to unify regions with disparate histories and cultures, such as Gaza and the West Bank.

The advantages of the plan, according to Kedar

Kedar notes that the plan would offer several advantages:

Alignment with cultural reality: By building on existing tribal structures, the plan respects local social dynamics, avoiding the creation of an artificial state that could collapse, as has happened in other countries in the region.

Regional stability: Kedar argues that homogeneous emirates, such as those in the Persian Gulf, are more stable than multi-ethnic states. For example, he compares the stability of Dubai (without oil) to the instability of Iraq (oil-rich).

Reduction of internal conflicts: By granting autonomy to each emirate, tensions between Palestinian factions, such as those between Hamas and Fatah, which have weakened the Palestinian cause, could be mitigated.

Peace with Israel: Kedar suggests that emirates interested in economic prosperity could sign individual peace treaties with Israel, encouraging cooperation and employment of Palestinians within Israel.

Regional context and the Abraham Accords

Kedar's plan comes against a backdrop of geopolitical changes in the Middle East, particularly following the Abraham Accords of 2020, which normalized relations between Israel and Arab countries such as the UAE and Bahrain. These agreements, which excluded the Palestinians, were seen by some as a sign that the Palestinian cause is losing relevance in the region. Kedar capitalizes on this realignment to argue that an emirate-based approach could integrate with the new dynamics of cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states.

Indeed, the plan of Arab leaders in Hebron who seek to recognize Israel as a Jewish state is for that city to secede from the Palestinian Authority (P.A.), establish an emirate of its own and join the Abraham Accords, The Wall Street Journal indicated.