ANALYSIS
US on track to record biggest annual drop in murders in decades
Platforms such as TikTok, X and Facebook amplify content that generates outrage or fear, while viral videos of isolated crimes can generate the impression of a widespread rise in crime, even though official data indicates otherwise.
Shot fired from a semi-automatic firearm (File).
The country is on track to record the largest annual decline in murders in its modern history, according to an analysis of data from the Real Time Crime Index (RTCI), which compiles information from 570 law enforcement agencies across the country.
Between January 2025 and October 2025, murders decreased by 19.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Other violent crimes also registered significant drops: motor vehicle theft fell 23.2%, robberies 18.3% and aggravated assaults 7.5%. The overall trend indicates a decline in most crime categories, including property crime and violent crime in general.
Variations by city
- New York and Memphis: nearly 20% drop in murders over 2024.
- Chicago: nearly 28% decrease.
- New Orleans: down 7.5%.
- Decline of Los Angeles: drop of close to 19%.
However, some locations recorded significant increases: Johnston, N.C., and Gilbert, Ariz., reported increases of as much as 600% in homicides, according to the RTCI.
Mass murders at historic lows
Mass murders, defined by the Department of Justice as the simultaneous killing of three or more people in the same location, reached their lowest level in more than 20 years in 2025. The database indicates that incidents were down approximately 24% from 2024 and 60% from the 2019 record, when 41 such incidents were recorded.
Criminologist James Alan Fox, in charge of the database, noted that the reduction largely represents a return to pre-pandemic levels after the spike seen during the COVID-19 years.
Public perception and media coverage
Despite these figures, the perception of insecurity in the U.S. population remains high. Fox attributes this to intensive media coverage and constant exposure on social media.
Platforms such as TikTok, X and Facebook amplify content that generates outrage or fear, while viral videos of isolated incidents can generate the impression of a widespread increase in crime, even when official data indicates otherwise.
Factors behind the decline
Experts say several factors could have contributed to the drop in murders:
- Deployment of the National Guard in cities with high violence.
- Actions by the FBI under the leadership of Kash Patel, including redeployment of agents and increased arrests in hotspots, nearly doubling in some areas.
- Stricter enforcement of existing laws and crime prevention strategies, albeit without direct evidence of a causal link to federal government policies.
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Historical context
The decline is part of a broader national trend of declining violent crime since 2021, following spikes during the COVID-19 pandemic era. The RTCI database, which has historically been shown to be consistent with official FBI figures, provides a preliminary picture of the criminal reality in the United States prior to the release of the 2025 federal data, scheduled for next year.
Although media exposure and social media maintain the perception of rising violence, the figures indicate that the country is experiencing a historic decline in murders and violent crime, with mass murders near their lowest levels in two decades.
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