Trump's new cabinet puts slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives at risk

Republicans recently celebrated a majority in the House of Representatives. After days of uncertainty over still-uncertain races across the country, Decision Desk HQ called two elections in favor of the GOP, then projecting a majority of at least 219 congressmen. However, Donald Trump's new cabinet could make it an even slimmer majority.

When a senator is elected president, vice president, cabinet member or simply resigns, the governor of the state in question must immediately appoint an alternate to serve out the remainder of the term. However, an interim election is usually set to confirm that appointment.

A prime example is JD Vance, who was elected to the Senate from 2022 through 2028 and recently as vice president for the 2025-2029 term. Once Ohio Governor Mike DeWine selects Vance's replacement, they will complete two years of Vance's term until 2026. A special election will be held to determine who will complete the remaining years through 2028.

In this case, the important thing is the speed with which the senator is replaced since it is done immediately.

The House of Representatives is a different case because, according to its rules, if a member resigns or is appointed to another office, their seat will remain vacant until a special election is held to determine their successor.

Trump nominated Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations and Congressman Michael Waltz as the new White House national security adviser.

Therefore, it will be weeks or even months after January 2025 before the respective elections are held to fill their vacancies, which, with a slim Republican majority, could complicate or delay Trump's legislative agenda for the first 100 days in office.

"President Trump fully understands and appreciates math"

Mike Johnson, speaker of the House of Representatives, addressed the situation and the majority he will have to lead if his colleagues vote for him again.

"President Trump fully understands and appreciates the math here, and it's just a numbers game. You know, we believe we're going to have a larger majority than we had last time. It's too early to handicap it, but we are optimistic about that," Johnson said.

"But every single vote will count, because if someone gets ill or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane, then it affects the votes on the floor. So, I think he and administration are well attuned to that. I don't expect that we will have more members leaving, but I'll leave that up to him," he added.

The House speaker was joined by Steve Scalise, majority leader, during a press conference. "I know he's already pulled a few really talented people out of the House – hopefully no more for a little while until special elections come up, but it shows you the talent that we have and the ability we have," he said.