The New York Times confirms bad omens for Kamala Harris: Losing black and Hispanic voters

The New York Times has certified and quantified two of Democrats' biggest fears for the November election: black and Hispanic voters, two of the most important voter bases, are drifting away from the Democratic Party at a pace never seen before. Kamala Harris has lost 22 points of support among black voters and 20 points among Latinos compared to 2016.

According to polls conducted by The New York Times among voters of both ethnic groups, Harris currently has the support of 78% of black voters and 56% of Hispanic voters. However, in 2016, Hillary Clinton was the preferred choice for 92% and 68% of members of these communities, respectively. After Donald Trump's term, this support began to decline timidly, and Joe Biden registered slightly worse numbers: 90% among African-Americans and 62% among Latinos.

Support for Trump growing among both communities

At the same time, Trump's numbers have been improving among members of both racial groups. Thus, he went from 7% support from black voters in 2016 to 15% in the NYT poll less than a month ahead of the 2024 election. Likewise, among Hispanics, he has improved by 9 points, reaching 37% support, up from 28% in 2016. In 2020, he received the vote from 9% of black citizens and 36% of Hispanics.

These numbers are frankly worrisome for Democratic leaders, since they put the election within a precarious and unknown margin. In 2016, a lead of 85 points among black voters and 39 among Hispanics was not enough to defeat the Republican candidate, and in 2020, margins of 81 and 26 points, respectively, were barely enough to carry Biden to the White House, making the 2024 numbers dire for the party's interests.

Harris' failure to deliver on promises alienates black voters 

Although the nomination of Kamala Harris has slightly improved numbers among black voters, the NYT notes that the main reason for the black community's increased disaffection with the Democratic Party "is driven by a growing belief that Democrats, who have long celebrated Black voters as the 'backbone' of their party, have failed to deliver on their promises, the poll showed. Forty percent of African American voters under 30 said the Republican Party was more likely to follow through on its campaign commitments than Democrats were."

Immigration and the economy push Hispanics toward Trump

For Hispanics, however, the main motivation is the handling of immigration policy and the economy. "More than one-third of Hispanic voters say they support both building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally. A vast majority of that support comes from Trump voters, but 9 percent of Harris voters also say the same. Support for such policies came largely from Latinos born in the United States," notes the NYT.