The liberation of Hispanic voters

The last two presidential terms have led Hispanic voters to break free from the chains that kept their vote tied to the Democratic Party. This began during Donald Trump's presidency and has accelerated notably under the Biden-Harris administration, whose management has especially punished Latinos, to the point that some polls even point to a historic victory for conservatives in the Hispanic community.

Despite warnings from some Democratic lawmakers, left-wing leaders are confident that Hispanics will end up voting for Kamala Harris or staying home, so they remain more focused on mobilizing black voters than on winning back the country's second largest ethnic group.

The Democratic Party's historic mistake with Hispanic voters

Ignoring the Hispanic vote could be a historic error, according to Census data. The Hispanic population is by far the fastest-growing in the U.S. (71% of the total growth of the country's residents in 2023 came from Latino families), and the one that shows the most potential to continue to do so in the coming years. In November, the number of Hispanics called to the polls will reach 36 million, 14.7% of the total number of eligible voters. The total Hispanic population grew to 65 million, practically one-fifth of the U.S. population (19.5%).

In fact, Hispanics are already the largest racial voting group in New Mexico. As many as 45% of those called to the polls are Latinos in The Land of Enchantment. The states with the largest number of residents from this demographic group are California (15,760,437), Texas(12,135,690), Florida (6,197,465) and New York (3,873,130).

Hispanics: Most dissatisfied group with the Biden-Harris administration

Far from acting in accordance with these figures, Joe Biden, at the start of the campaign, and Kamala Harris, after taking the nomination from the president, have pushed aside a community that has been badly hurt by their economic measures and is absolutely opposed to their immigration policy. In poll after poll, Latino voters have reiterated inflation, the economy and the border crisis as their top concerns.

This has been reflected in the support of a community that traditionally voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party and that, according to some of the latest polls, could even vote overwhelmingly for Republicans. With the exception of 2004, Democratic candidates had a 35-point advantage among Latinos over their conservative opponents until 2020. Biden saw this gap shrink to 23 points (down 12%) after Trump's term in office.

Kamala Harris: Lowest Hispanic support for a Democratic candidate

With Kamala Harris at the helm, the situation has only gotten worse. The most optimistic forecasts give her a margin of victory of 18 points among Hispanics (Pew Research Center), while the latest polls from the University of Quinnipiac put her between 6 and 10 points ahead of Trump, a more than remarkable milestone.

One fact that should be of even more concern to Democrats is that young Hispanic voters are noticeably flipping toward conservatives, which presents a complicated future for the Democratic Party if stays complacent and does not start working to earn back the support of the Latino electorate instead of only relying on the support of Hispanic women with its position on abortion.

Finally, a poll by NBC demonstrated another devastating figure for the Democrats. Between 2022 and 2024, 8% of Hispanics have stopped considering the Democratic Party as the one that best represents their values. Two years ago, 47% of Latinos identified with Biden and company, while in 2024, only 39% do.