Will the Jewish vote hurt Democrats? It may be decisive in November

Tzippy Shmilovitz, U.S. correspondent for Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronot, recently published an article in which she noted that while most members of the Jewish community in the U.S. country tend to vote for Democrats, Kamala Harris could pay a high price due to antisemitic protests, especially on college campuses, and the way the vice president seeks to capture the Arab vote, among other missteps made by the Democratic candidate.

Shmilovitz recalled that in one of her first campaign rallies after becoming the Democratic nominee for president, Kamala Harris, like Joe Biden, was repeatedly interrupted during her speeches by pro-Hamas demonstrators.

While in comments she made during an interview in June with left-leaning publication The Nation, Harris underhandedly defended the anti-Israeli protests on U.S. college campuses where Jewish students were assaulted, claiming that she understands the "emotion" behind pro-Hamas protesters at academic institutions.

During a recent rally, Harris allowed protesters to shout for a while, but because their shouting would not stop, she looked at them and said, "If you want Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I'm speaking." Most of the audience responded enthusiastically, as many Democrats are simply tired of Middle East issues.

According to Schmilovitz, the fact that the event was held in Michigan, the state with the largest Muslim population in the United States, could negatively affect Harris, but the viral video in which she is seen silencing protesters could help her deal with another problem inherited from Biden: the Jewish vote.

However, it should be noted that Harris has not only underhandedly justified pro-Hamas protesters on college campuses, she has also recently chosen an antisemitic official as her chief liaison to the Arab community in the United States in order to attract the vote from this community. Brenda Abdelall, an Egyptian-American lawyer who worked at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), said in 2002 at the annual conference of the American Muslim Council that "the Zionists have a strong voice in American politics." She added, "I would say they're controlling a lot of it."

In addition, as liaison to the Jewish community, Harris appointed left-wing negotiator Ilan Goldenberg. Despite being born in Israel, the official provided important collaboration for the Biden-Harris administration, which he joined in 2021, to sanction the Jewish state.

Likewise, during Trump's presidency, Goldenberg took aim at the administration's policy on Israel. In 2021, he argued that the United States should not consider Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, and lashed out against Trump's decision to move the U.S. embassy to that city and against the Middle East peace plan presented by the then-president.

As if all that were not enough, before Israel launched a large-scale operation in the Gazan city of Rafah, a major Hamas stronghold, Harris said she did not rule out "consequences" against the Jewish state if its military carried out the incursion. It was a hostile statement toward Jerusalem.

A tense meeting between Jewish leaders and US government officials

Shmilovitz remarked in her lengthy article that in the summer, an emergency meeting was held at the White House. On one side of the table were Jewish community leaders in the United States, and on the other, senior government officials, including Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. The purpose of the meeting was to inform Jewish leaders about the authorities' fight against rising antisemitism amid the war in Gaza and about Washington's support for Israel's war effort.

The Israeli journalist maintained that it was a very tense meeting. In fact, one of the participants protested the presence of a member of the National Security Council team who in his university days belonged to the Students for Justice in Palestine organization, a group behind a large number of pro-Hamas protests at universities. Another person who was present at the meeting mentioned a rumor circulating on social media that President Biden had deleted a reference to antisemitism in his State of the Union Address last March. In response to the comments, government officials defended the staff member as "professional" and claimed that the rumor about the omission was "totally false," but the atmosphere remained tense throughout the meeting.

Shmilovitz noted that it is no coincidence that the White House saw the need to hold such a meeting, as Biden had been warned for months that because of his support for Israel, he was losing critical votes from the left, especially among young non-whites and, perhaps most significantly, among American Muslims in Michigan, a key swing state that could decide the election. However, the journalist stressed, what went more unnoticed was the possibility that the president was also losing Jewish votes, a group large enough to decide the election in decisive states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona. In all of these states, Biden won in 2020 by less than 3%, with the total percentage of Jewish voters ranging from 1% to 3%. Given that the rematch between the incumbent and Trump was expected to be close, these votes could have carried (and still carry) critical weight.

Many Jews feel betrayed by Democrats

This year, Democratic representatives and voters told U.S. media that among a significant portion of Jews there was a sense of "betrayal" by those who were once their progressive allies, as they feel that the administration has not done enough to stem the tide of antisemitism on college campuses, and others feel that Biden has not provided enough support for Israel.

It should be added that for those reasons, President Donald Trump and the rest of the Republican candidates could get the largest share of the Jewish vote in history in the November election, John McLaughlin, a pollster for the former president's campaign, told The New York Post.

According to the Israeli journalist, the Oct. 7 massacre and the subsequent war in Gaza fatally affected Joe Biden's presidential campaign. In fact, according to Shmilovitz, it would not be an exaggeration to claim that the conflict in the Middle East was a major factor that led Biden to make the decision to withdraw his candidacy, beyond the disastrous debate with Trump and the episodes of confusion that are apparently related to a strong cognitive impairment.

Shmilovitz further argued that Kamala Harris should have come into the campaign without the burden of the Gaza war that so burdened Biden, but by choosing Tim Walz as her vice president instead of Josh Shapiro, who is Jewish, she got herself back into trouble with the Jewish community.

The journalist quoted Beth Balsam, a partisan public relations consultant for the Democrats, who stated that the attack against Shapiro by those who opposed his candidacy was "antisemitic and despicable," so now Harris has to make it clear that she has not given in to these extremists and that she will continue to oppose hatred and support Israel.

It should also be noted that Tim Walz maintained close ties with an antisemitic Muslim imam who celebrated the Oct. 7 massacre and promoted a film glorifying Adolf Hitler, U.S.-based outlet The Washington Examiner recently reported.

Walz also stated during a recent radio interview for WCMU that pro-Hamas protesters are "speaking out for all the right reasons" and that more pressure should be put on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a Palestinian state. He further noted that "we can’t allow what’s happened in Gaza to happen."

Jews know how to use their vote to express disapproval

The Israeli journalist warned that while most Jews in the United States are progressive and their connection to the Democrats is natural, they also know how to use their vote to express disapproval.

American Jews voted 90% for Franklin Roosevelt, 82% for John F. Kennedy and 90% for Lyndon Johnson. Bill Clinton got 80% of their votes, Barack Obama 78% and Hillary Clinton 71%. Although Jews represent a small percentage of the population (only 2.4% of U.S. citizens, although if one counts those who identify as Jews, the percentage rises to 4.5%), they carry great weight in U.S. society, including politics. This fact gives the Jewish vote a particular importance for Democrats.

According to recent polls, for many American Jews, Israel is not a higher priority than issues such as abortion rights or the struggle for democracy, but they do follow the government's actions on Israel closely, with 81% saying they feel emotionally connected to the Jewish state.

Moreover, Shmilovitz added, the narrative that U.S. policy toward Israel is not an important factor for Jews when it comes to voting does not always hold up in reality. For example, in 1976, Jimmy Carter won 71% of the Jewish vote, but despite the peace agreement with Egypt that he achieved, he was perceived as hostile to Israel, and Jewish support for him fell to 45% in 1980.

On the Republican side, President George H.W. Bush won 35% of the Jewish vote in 1988, which was considered a great achievement. However, after refusing to grant loan guarantees to Israel to help with immigration from the former Soviet Union, Jewish support dropped to 11% in the following election.

The journalist remarked that, whether by chance or not, both Carter and Bush Sr. were presidents who served only one term. She stressed that although Biden got 68% of the Jewish vote in 2020, which represents a significant majority, it's not as big as it used to be. And she added that Harris would probably be happy to keep that percentage.

Well-known attorney Alan Dershowitz leaves the Democratic Party citing antisemitism at the 2024 DNC

Renowned attorney Alan Dershowitz announced that left the Democratic Party during a radio interview with radio host Zev Brenner on "Talkline with Zev Brenner."

According to Dershowitz, the main reason for leaving the party was the 2024 Democratic National Convention, where the party decided to accommodate rampant "antisemitism," a situation that generated a deep sense of "disgust" in the lawyer.

"It was the most anti-Jewish, anti-Israel, anti-Zionist convention I've experienced,," the lawyer said. "I was disgusted at the Democratic National Convention. Absolutely disgusted," he added.

"I am no longer a Democrat. I am an independent," Dershowitz said.

An opportunity for Trump and the Republicans

Shmilovitz considered that Trump may have a chance to get a large number of Jewish votes, perhaps the largest in decades. However, she criticized the statements of the former president, who has said that progressive Jews who vote for Democrats are enemies of Israel and that they should undergo a mental examination. These words, she said, could alienate a large number of voters in the Jewish community.

The most recent poll by the American Jewish Committee (AJC) shows that 93% of Jews are concerned about rising antisemitism, while 87% believe that hatred against the community has increased since the Oct. 7 massacre.

If Kamala Harris does not want to lose the Jewish votes that usually help elect Democrats, she will have to work hard to convince members of this community that their situation will improve so that they will not look toward other options or stay home on Election Day.

Maintaining Jewish support in the context of the clash between progressives and moderates, exacerbated by the war in Gaza, is extremely complex, and everything seems to indicate that Harris is not making the best decisions.

The Israeli journalist concluded that the internal divisions in the Democratic Party and the rise of antisemitism have put the usual loyalty of many Jews at risk, which could be a decisive factor in the presidential election.

Beyond Trump's strong statements mentioned above, Republicans tend to have more determined and unified positions in favor of Israel and, with exceptions, against antisemitism, so it is likely that, in the context of increasing demonstrations of hatred against Jews in the United States, members of this community who used to vote for Democrats will opt to switch sides vote Republican. And if Harris keeps making missteps, that support may be lost forever.