Is the Harris effect over? Trump regains his slim lead according to a major national poll

Multiple national and statewide polls position Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump two weeks after her candidacy was made official. However, in a remarkable twist, a leading national poll again put Trump slightly ahead of Harris, replicating the narrow lead the Republican nominee held over the now-retired Joe Biden.

According to the most recent Fox News national poll, conducted Aug. 9-12 with a 3% margin of error, Trump leads Harris by just one percentage point: 50-49%. However, that tiny lead vanishes when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the other trailing candidates are added to the polls, leaving Harris and Trump with 45% of the vote each while RFK Jr. receives 6% of the support and the rest barely 1%.

Last month, before Harris was a candidate, a Fox News poll also showed Trump leading Biden and Harris by one point, with 49% to 48%. This suggests that the electoral contest has not changed one iota, despite the multiple momentous events that have occurred in recent weeks.

In a brief review of events, the presidential race had a calamitous Biden debate that sparked an internal revolt in the Democratic Party, an assassination attempt against Trump, the Republican National Convention, the selection of JD Vance as the Republican vice presidential nominee, Biden's retirement from the  presidential campaign, Harris' assumption as the official nominee, the election of Tim Walz as the running mate of the current vice president and a sort of honeymoon period between Harris and the media that has significantly improved the Democrat's once deteriorated image.

The explanation for the race remaining the same lies in the fact that both Democrats and Republicans are highly motivated to support their party's candidate, Fox News reported.

Overall, one percentage point more Democrats support Harris (94%) than Republicans support Trump (93%), but the numbers are extremely close.

 Trump is benefiting, for the moment, in the small subset of independents who are leaning toward him with an eight-point lead.

Likewise, Trump is retaining 95% of his 2020 supporters and Harris has 93% of Biden's 2020 voters, a number that suggests an election with numbers very similar to four years ago.

Meanwhile, new voters (those who have not voted in the four most recent general elections) are equally split to 49% for each candidate. This represents an improvement for Harris and the Democrats, as last month new voters preferred Trump over Biden by seven points.

Each candidate's voter base is also well marked. The Republican receives support from, especially,men, white evangelical Christians, rural voters and white men without a college degree. The Democrat is backed by women, black voters, people under 30 and college graduates.

While Harris improved Biden's numbers over the last Fox News poll, she detracted from the then-Democratic nominee's performance in 2020.

Another key point for Harris is that, relative to Biden, the vice president does beat Trump by eight points on mental ability to serve effectively as president (58% vs. 50%). Previously this section was dominated by the Republican candidate.

However, Trump has a five-point advantage in being seen as a strong leader (52% vs. 47%) and also has the confidence of voters to handle the economy, which is the most important issue according to 38% of respondents.

Handling the economy is followed by immigration and abortion, tied at 14% each. Trump dominates Harris on the former and the Democrat dominates the Republican candidate on the latter.

Specifically, Trump holds a six-point lead over Harris on handling the economy, a reversal for the Republican from his showdown with Biden, whom he outperformed by double digits in recent polls.

Likewise, voters also give Trump the edge in handling border security (by 19 points), immigration (+14), foreign policy (+7), and crime (+5).

Harris, meanwhile, is favored on combating climate change (by 18 points), abortion (+16), health care (+10), and uniting the country (+5).