Biden is trailing Trump in the polls but the margin is not significantly different from other potential Democratic candidates who have not actively campaigned

Joe Biden went through a fiercely contested Democratic primary in 2020, largely on the premise that he was the "only" candidate capable of beating Donald Trump. However, four years later, his performance in the presidential debate and the latest polling data suggest that argument has become increasingly difficult to support. 

According to a recent poll conducted by Emerson College of approximately 1,300 likely voters, at least four other Democrats would be nearly as competitive as Biden in a potential matchup against Trump, even without the advantage of incumbency, campaining and running ads. 

The president would lose to Trump by three percentage points, 43% to 46%. Interestingly, Kamala Harris would also have the same percentage of support, 43 %, although six points behind the former president. The same is true for Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Biden's main rival in the 2020 primaries, who would receive 42 % of the votes, trailing Trump by six points as well. 

Further down the list is Al Gore, who withdrew from politics over 20 years ago. The former vice president and senator from Tennessee would outpefrom both Harris and Sanders, with 42% of the vote. He would trail Trump by only five points. 

The other Democrats speculated as possible replacements for Biden would fall a little farther behind in the November election. 

For example, Hillary Clinton would lose by seven points, Gavin Newsom by eight, Pete Buttigieg by ten, as would Elizabeth Warren and Gretchen Whitmer. Finally, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro would trail by 12 points in a potential race against Trump. 

However, it should be noted that none of these names are actively campaigning or running TV or social media ads to establish themselves as potential candidates. 

Turning to the president's situation, the poll also found that his support among voters diminshed following his performance in the debate hosted by CNN on June 27. 

"Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points. Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%. Last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.