Trump, Zelenski, Europe, Putin and the events of Purim

A week after the Oval Office debacle, the U.S. and Ukraine are preparing a meeting in Riyadh that could be the prelude to the first direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. This at least is the wish of Washington, which has made it clear that the war must end now and urges the Ukrainians to put off until after the agreement is signed the fundamental question for Kiev of the security guarantees they will receive in the post-war period.

At least based on public information, this is the main point of disagreement between Washington and Kiev, which fears a new Russian attack if it lays down its arms without clear mechanisms in place to deter Moscow from further military aggression in Ukraine.

The US has been in favor of deploying a military contingent in Ukraine to ensure compliance with the agreement to be signed. Trump says he is convinced of the feasibility of this option, although the Kremlin keeps repeating that it will not accept anything of the sort, especially if the troops come from its adversary, Europe.

Zelenski has insisted on the possibility of Turkey's participation in this contingent. Although part of NATO, the Turks have a large army, good relations with Moscow and Kiev and the boldness to deal with Russia without the cautious approach that typically characterizes Europeans outside the social network X.

"Among the many positive effects of Trump's brutal honesty could be a serious rearmament of Europe."

To sit down to negotiate now and on its terms, the US is pressuring Ukraine with measures unimaginable before Trump's arrival in the White House. His Administration has cut off the flow of weaponry and intelligence information to Ukraine, which will be severely undermined in its ability to continue fighting without key US support.

These decisions confirm that Trump is serious about ending the war as soon as possible. Many believe that at any cost, but that remains to be seen and we will only know when negotiations begin in earnest. It is easy to understand Ukrainian unease about this possibility.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the continent's top leaders and those of the EU have in just a few days organized four or five urgent and extraordinary meetings on Ukraine, which have not yet served to make clear what peacekeeping contingent they could provide.

Macron declared this week the "strategic debate" open on the possibility of extending the French nuclear umbrella to other countries. The very formula used seems to indicate the futility of the initiative.

The plan of Von der Leyen to mobilize more money to better arm Europe and also Ukraine has already taken shape. Von der Leyen is one of the most hated politicians by the untamed right wing, which from both sides of the Atlantic has reproached her for her warlike ardor amid accusations of wanting to extend the war.

That same right wing party applauds Trump for having evidenced European impotence. Why then criticize Europe when it takes steps to stop being impotent? It is like laughing at a fat man because he is fat and reproaching him for joining the gym.

Among the many positive effects of Trump's brutal honesty could be a serious rearmament of Europe. Far from being a bid for war it is the best medium-term guarantee of peace.

The near future, the desired one

What can be expected in the coming days from Trump's efforts to bring the war to an end?

At best, that Ukraine signs with the US the agreement for the exploitation of its minerals, the most solid guarantee of security that any US Administration has offered so far to Kiev and a unique opportunity for the exploitation of its natural resources for Ukrainians.

May the signed agreement bring about a ceasefire, partial or total. Lowering the weapons gives a breathing space and room for reinforcement to the Russians, but also to the Ukrainians, who can always raise them again if Moscow breaks the truce.

And with Trump as receptive as possible to the demands of Kyiv and Europe, negotiations with Russia would begin, resuming arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The incentives offered to Moscow to restore normalcy, resume business, and present the agreement as a victory would need to be sufficient for the Kremlin to accept a strong Ukrainian army and Turkish and European troops as guarantors of peace in Ukraine.

Trump believes that so far it has been Zelenski who has stonewalled his peace plan, and he has reacted with forceful and immediate measures to force him to withdraw them. An overly demanding Putin might find the same response in Trump, or at least we hope so for those of us who will celebrate the whole process if a somewhat smaller but independent, viable and prosperous Ukraine emerges from it.

To Trump, the timing is right

Jews celebrate next week the holiday of Purim, which commemorates the events recounted in the Megillah of Esther, the book of the Jewish Bible that tells how the Jewish queen Esther saved her people from the genocidal plans of Prime Minister Haman. A Jew who had learned of the Holocaust being prepared by Haman asks Esther to intercede with her husband, the Gentile king Achashverosh, to prevent the Holocaust.

Esther has a first opportunity to ask her husband to kill his prime minister, but he does not do so and asks her instead to invite him to a banquet. At the banquet she is presented with the opportunity again, but Esther again misses it and asks to invite Haman to eat once more. At this second banquet, and on the third occasion, the queen points out the wicked Haman to the king, who listens to his wife and decides to kill him.

The Jewish sages say that, in the midst of general incomprehension, Esther had the divine inspiration to know the moment when her mission could succeed. Trump's steps with the evil Putin remind some of the seemingly erratic behavior of Esther, who twice invited the evil one to dinner when she could fulminate. Trump may be the Esther who saves the Ukrainians from Haman Putin.