Most polls analyzing the Republican primaries have a common denominator; they only ask the respondent which candidate they would vote for. In this type of poll, Donald Trump has a significant advantage compared to the rest of his competitors. However, to show a broader picture of where things stand in the Republican Party, CBS and You Gov changed the modus operandi.
This survey stopped individually at each candidate and asked respondents if they would consider voting for them if they might consider voting for them if they got to know the candidate better or if they would not consider voting for them at all.
In this context, the result was more than successful for Trump since he was the candidate who obtained the best numbers in the poll. Seventy-five percent of likely Republican voters said they would consider voting for him. In comparison, 11 percent might consider it and only 14 percent ruled it out, giving him 86 percent of the GOP primary voting intent.
"He (Trump) really dominates in the 'not considering column,' where just 14 percent of republic-looking primary voters say they are not considering him. This is the big headline. This is what tells me exactly what I need to know about the 2024 race," said Ethan Kelly, popular political analyst, progressive and owner of the YouTube channel "Let's Talk Elections."
Second place went to Ron DeSantis, as 51% of those polled would consider voting for him, 22% might, and 27% said they would not. The total possible voting intention stood at 73%, the second highest behind Trump.
Rounding out the podium was Senator Tim Scott, who would potentially have the support of 58% of respondents (21% would consider him and 37% might consider him), while 42% have no intention of voting for him.
Trouble for Christie, Hutchinson, Burgum and Pence
In the ranking of those who potential Republican voters are not considering, one name stood head and shoulders above the rest: Chris Christie. Seventy-nine percent of respondents said they are not considering voting for perhaps the most anti-Trump candidate of all, followed by Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum, both at 73 percent.
Another who is not where he would like to be is Mike Pence. The former vice-president barely obtained 39% of possible voting intentions, which placed him in fifth place, to which must be added that 60% would not consider voting for him.
"These numbers tell us the whole story. They complete that half of the picture that we have been leaving out when discussing the 2024 nomination. Yes, it is true, 47.1 percent of Republican primary voters are opting for either no one right now because they're undecided or other candidates than Donald Trump, but in totality, here 86 percent are still considering him for the 2024 race," Kelly analyzed with the full poll results.
