Fetterman's chances of victory plummet after debate with Mehmet Oz

A poll gives the Republican candidate a 2.7-point lead, and betting odds point to him as the winner.

The effect of the debate on John Fetterman's chances of victory in the Pennsylvania Senate race has been devastating. A poll gives his rival, Mehmet Oz, a lead of 2.7 percentage points.

According to a poll conducted by Insider Advantage for the state of Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz (R) commands the support of 47.5% of voters, to 44.8% for John Fetterman (D). The survey was conducted on October 26th, one day after the debate between the two candidates.

An unfortunate debate

During the debate, John Fetterman tried to overcome the limitations imposed on him by the consequences of the stroke he suffered last May. However, these consequences were apparent from the very first moment: he said "good night", when the debate was in the afternoon. Mehmet Oz did not refer to the issue, but on one occasion he was forced to repeat a question to him because he did not understand it the first time.

The survey is based on 750 interviews with likely voters.

Betting against Fetterman

It is not only the polls that reflect this change of opinion. Investors do too. PredictIt arranges bets on election results, and the jump in Oz's chances of victory is also reflected in the betting price.

Thus, on Monday the 24th, to win a dollar betting on Mehmet Oz's victory, you had to contribute 53 cents. The cost of the John Fetterman bet was 50 cents.

Fetterman, on the defensive

The debate has changed the situation completely. As recently as Tuesday, trying to win a dollar on a bet on Oz's victory was already costing 65 cents, while a bet on Fetterman had gone down to 39 cents. On the other hand, the volume of bets has multiplied: from $48,200 on the 24th to $252,100 on the 25th.

Since then, analyses of Fetterman's slim chances of victory have continued to influence political betting investor sentiment. Oz's victory has been priced up to 68 cents per dollar, while Fetterman's has fallen to 37cents.

Bets by John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz / PredictIt.
Bets by John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz / PredictIt.

John Fetterman recognizes the effect of the debate and is defensive: "We have always stuck up for ourselves. We showed up for the debate, and of course, it wasn't going to be easy... "It's about getting back up and fighting."