Analysis of the elections in Argentina with former vice president Carlos Ruckauf: “The more people vote, the more possibilities for Milei”

Javier Milei, the libertarian who wants to be president of Argentina, constantly refers to Carlos Saúl Menem's (1989-1999) government as the "best in local history." That presidency stood out for very low inflation, a considerable increase in GDP and a foreign policy very close to the United States. Analysts of the time even spoke of "carnal relations" between both countries, which led the then-Argentine president to give a speech before the North American Congress.

One of the protagonists of that decade was Carlos Ruckauf, who served as ambassador, Minister of the Interior, and then vice president for the last four years of Menem's presidency. Later, he was chancellor, governor of the Province of Buenos Aires and national deputy.

Converted into a highly consulted political analyst, he received Voz Media at his home to talk about the second round between Milei and Sergio Massa, Peronism, the international scene, and, of course, the legacy of the person who held the presidency for the longest time in Argentina.

Economic freedom vs. Populism

Looking ahead to November 19, when the libertarian economist will compete for the Casa Rosada with the current Minister of Economy, Ruckauf assured that the two forces represent "very clear ideological coalitions." On the one hand, the center-right and the liberal ideas of Milei, and on the other, the center-left, Peronism, and even part of what was the Communist Party in the ranks of Massa.

Regarding a potential government of both, he defined Massa as a "Néstor Kirchner," the late former president and husband of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

"Not everyone understands or knows who Néstor Kirchner was because everything depends on the generations. He was a great autocrat who arrived through the popular vote, by very little of the popular vote, but then formed it into a center-left power structure, adding the protestors. He governs in relation to what would be the center-left group of Latin America, Hugo Chávez, Lula da Silva and current Nicaragua. That is the ideology of Néstor Kirchner. He is a populist with a very inconsistent economic policy," he explained.

"His doctrine was if you had $500 coming in, but you pretended to be living on $2,000. So, either issue money or borrow or take it from our savings. We reached the end of that process without foreign currency, without reserves in the Central Bank, indebted to the world and with rampant hyperinflation," he continued.

In addition, he spoke of the government that Massa integrates as "a disaster" and as "the worst in Argentine history." However, he recognized the candidate as a "very skilled" person and someone capable "of selling oranges to Paraguayans."

On the other side, the ideas of economic freedom stand still, "not proven in Argentina since the time of Carlos Menem, the government of which I was vice president. It was a very successful government that had 2% annual inflation for a decade; today, we have that per week… if we're lucky," he indicated.

The key to the election

After anticipating very close elections, he stated that the key would be in the number of people who go to vote. "The more people go to vote, the more possibilities for Milei, the fewer people go to vote, the more possibilities for Massa because he controls a strong territorial apparatus," analyzed Ruckauf.

However, it turns out that the election weekend is long, meaning it will be three days instead of two, which could directly affect the point the former vice president mentioned.

"This has a very close precedent in Spain, our motherland. In the regional elections, the Popular Party won, and they were so convinced that they would win the general elections that they told me they would not need Vox," he recalled.

By chance, the former ambassador to Italy was traveling to the European country, so he took the opportunity to take the electoral temperature of the streets.

"So, socialism calls elections in the middle of the summer holidays, and they run a 'the right is coming for your rights' campaign. I asked the drivers and the waiters, who told me that 'this socialist government is terrible, but we are not going to vote for the right because it is coming for my rights.' They put that slogan in people's heads, many people went on vacation, and the PP won, but it was not enough," he added.

Although he does not know what the Argentine will choose, he stated, "Milei's greatest defect also turns out to be his greatest virtue," coming from outside politics. Although it has the outsider card, "he does not have an electoral control system." "By not having it, it is difficult for him to supervise the electoral act itself: they steal ballots, they cheat… we will see."

Who would Carlos Menem vote for?

Ruckauf did not find anything of Menem in the candidates. In the case of Javier Milei, despite sharing several ideas and values, his temperament seems to differ from that of the former president. "It was very difficult to see Carlos angry, even when he was angry. Milei gets too angry for my liking," he said.

Regarding Massa, who directly "does not share any of the ideas," he highlighted his "sympathy, which also has its advantages in politics."

When asked who Carlos Menem would vote for if he were alive, his former vice president preferred to keep that answer to himself. "I won't say that because I would give up political analysis to make propaganda. I have no doubt who I would vote for, but I will not say it," he slipped.

"The Peronism that Perón left behind was a Ferrari and together we have been converting it into four Fiat 600s"

Ruckauf has Peronist origins; he was a minister in the government of María Estela Martínez de Perón, overthrown by the last military dictatorship in 1976.

He brought an interesting automotive reference to the conversation regarding the party's current situation: "The Peronism that Perón left behind was a Ferrari and together we have been converting it into four Fiat 600s ."

He detailed that one "walks alongside Kirchnerism, another walks alongside Milei, another alongside Schiaretti (former presidential candidate), and Republican Peronism mans the other within the dying coalition of Together for the Change."

The keys to surviving a divided Congress

Whoever wins will face a highly divided congress, different from recent years, which was once a clerk of the administration in power.

Having presided over the Senate as vice president and remembering his years as a deputy, Ruckauf pointed out that "the key is in Machiavelli: 'the prince is judged by his ministers'."

"To manage a Congress of these characteristics, you need a chief of staff who understands well where the springs are that need to be touched, an interior minister who works with the chief of staff, a minister of Economy who loosens the stock market to be able to negotiate with the provinces and a vice president who has to understand that the Senate is a body that answers to the governors. The senators are pulleys for transmitting the needs of their respective provinces," he added.

What can be learned from the Menem government?

"Everything," Ruckauf responded with a laugh. "It was the best government of Argentine democracy. First, because he took the positions in the world that had to be taken. The world conditions you, although sometimes we live like in a village and we do not realize that this is so. They are going to have to be clear, as Menem was clear, about the power of the governors," he explained.

Finally, he mentioned what must be paid more attention to if Argentina is to grow again, "public spending," which ultimately complicated the last years of his government.

"(Whoever takes office) will have to make a policy that ends public spending, because it is the exaggerated public spending that has destroyed the Argentine economy. The central basis of Menem's final convertibility crisis was that we did not lower public spending enough. Today, public spending is 300% of what Menem had, three times more. It is an extremely difficult task and that is where we have to start," he concluded.

The complete interview