US economy is holding up: Economist Daniel Lacalle tells 'VOZ News' that 'the risk of a recession is very low'

Economist Daniel Lacalle highlighted the strength of the U.S. economy on Friday on "VOZ News" and stated that the country maintains solid growth prospects, despite persistent inflation and the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adjust interest rates again. During an interview with Karina Yapor, the show's anchor and executive director, Lacalle stated that "the risk of a recession is very low" and noted that the latest forecasts show the United States continues to grow at a considerable pace.

"The latest growth estimates for the United States range between 2.5% and 2.7% real growth after accounting for inflation," explained Lacalle, who also highlighted consumer spending, one of the main drivers of the U.S. economy, and maintained that current inflation levels have not led to a significant weakening of demand.

"Inflation is not affecting consumer spending; second-quarter consumption figures have been revised upward. I think it's important to put that into context. There is no elevated risk of recession," added the economist, who noted that the available data show a U.S. economy capable of sustaining its expansion despite inflationary pressures.

Despite this, Lacalle warned that the risk remains that inflation will stay high for a longer period. In his view, another interest rate hike would not necessarily solve that problem. "Of course, there is a risk of persistent inflation, but the risk of persistent inflation will not be resolved by rate hikes," he said.

The economist also explained that interest rates have a direct impact on households and businesses, but not necessarily on external factors driving energy prices, adding that raising rates could end up unnecessarily weakening an economy that is currently experiencing solid growth. "Rate hikes affect households and businesses that are not to blame for persistent inflation and do nothing to change the trend in oil prices, gas prices, etc. ... Therefore, if rates are raised, there is a risk of triggering an unnecessary recession—and, of course, a recession in the private sector," he explained.

You can watch the full interview by clicking on the video below.