ANALYSIS.
Hispanic shift: Latino voters are massively turning away from Trump one year after election
Members of the nation's second-largest ethnic group, key to the Republican's return to the White House in 2024, are turning away from Trump as they feel negatively affected by his economic measures and their impact on cost of living.
A man holds a sign reading "Hispanics for Trump."
What had been a trickle has ended up becoming a tsunami that has ended Donald Trump’s “honeymoon” with Hispanic voters, key in his election victory just over a year ago. The latest polls indicate Latinos’ rising dissatisfaction with the president. This trend was cemented in this year's Nov. 4 election, where members of the nation's second-largest ethnic group overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates, in what was a horrible night for Republicans.
A little more than 12 months ago, the economy and border security were the two big issues that made Hispanics, especially men, cast their ballots with Trump's name. Ironically, today it is again the economy that is the cause of the sinking popularity and job approval of the president among members of this community.
The Economist / YouGov: Hispanics more critical of Trump than average
The latest survey to date, that of The Economist / You Gov, published on Nov. 17, indicates that Hispanics' approval of Trump's job stands at 39%, with "strong" support at 20%.
The average approval is at 40%, according to this poll, but only 7% of black voters approve of the president's job, while whites are satisfied at 48%.
Disapproval is also higher than average among Hispanics, (58%, versus 56%). The worst-rated policies by Latinos are immigration (60% dissatisfied, compared to 37% who support his measures) and the economy and jobs (55% disapproval vs. 40% approval).
CNN: Barely 20% of Hispanics still support Trump
If those numbers are bad, CNN's numbers are even more devastating. According to the poll from the cable network, barely 20% of Hispanics approve of Donald Trump one year after the election, a 21-point drop compared to his rating in February when he was just inaugurated as president.
In addition, the survey also highlights that Latinos feel especially negatively affected by the measures from the Republican government. Thus, 54% consider the performance of the economy and cost of living to be the most important issues (compared to 47% on average).
In this sense, their perception of the economic situation of the country with Trump is overwhelmingly negative, with 81% rating it as "somewhat or very poor." In addition, 75% of Hispanic voters (compared to 61% on average) believe that their economic situation has worsened with the return of the Republican to the White House.
Equis, a pollster expert on Latino issues, has also been pointing out Trump's loss of voters among Hispanics. In its "Latino Pulse" October poll of 2,000 registered Latino voters, conducted Oct. 15-29, "Trump's rating among Latino voters was 36-59 (-23). Some 19% of his supporters expressed disappointment (14%) or outright regret (6%) for having voted for him, and 13% of them expressed their possible abandonment of the Republican side in 2026."
Nov. 4 election: Bitter confirmation of this trend
The problem is that these results were confirmed at the polls on Nov. 4, with the Latino vote being key to Democratic victories in the main seats at stake.
According to exit polls from various sources, Latino voters who participated in the election were much more favorable to the Democratic Party. For example, CNN points to 56% in California and Virginia and 71% in New Jersey.
According to this poll, 24% of Latinos who said they voted for Trump in 2024 voted for Gavin Newsom’s gerrymandering bill, and 18% of this same group flipped and voted for Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill.
These were notably higher numbers than the average among all Trump voters in 2024 who changed the direction of their vote on No. 4: 12% in California and 7% in New Jersey.
The New York Times underlined that "Nine of the 10 townships that swung most heavily Democratic between 2024 and 2025 had a Hispanic population of at least 60%." Moreover, in some areas of New Jersey, the Hispanic vote swing exceeded 50% over 2024.
Equis: Nov. 4 proves that the Hispanic drift "was not a mirage"
On Nov. 17, Equis presented its analysis of the election results among Hispanics. Its conclusion reinforces that Trump and Republicans have work ahead to win back this important part of society.
"On Nov. 4, a year after Trump and Republicans made significant gains among Latino voters nationwide, Democrats regained some support among Latinos in key elections. The discontent that Latino voters have expressed in polls throughout the year was not a mirage, but was reflected at the ballot box."
According to Equis data, "in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, the first clear measure of Latino support since 2024, votes in Hispanic-heavy areas looked more like 2021 than 2024. This is a first indication that the best point of comparison for Latino support in the 2026 midterm elections may be 2022, not 2024: higher for Democrats than last year's Republican peak, butnot yet reaching pre-Biden Democratic highs."
The battle for the Latino vote in the midterms is wide open, despite these numbers
"However, this does not mean that Trump's gains have been completely erased, nor that the Republican Party cannot continue to show strength among Latinos. Nor do attitudes toward the Trump administration among Latino voters vary much from month to month, despite new developments; partisanship continues to predominate. Equis analysis shows that about 11% of Hispanic voters in those districts remain true swing voters and as many as 30% remain open to persuasion. And perceptions of both parties have remained relatively stable since the beginning of the year.
"Despite dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, Democrats have failed to improve their popularity among Latinos (45% in favor/45% opposed) over the past three months. And the GOP's rating has remained relatively stable at 39/53. Both parties continue to have significant room for growth among Latino voters, especially when it comes to addressing the cost of living and fighting for hardworking Americans."
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