Johnson's calculation to stay on as House speaker: How many votes does he need?

With 2025 already begun, lawmakers will elect the speaker of the House of Representatives next Friday. While Mike Johnson (R-LA) secured Donald Trump's endorsement and aspires to remain in office, he maintains only a slim Republican majority which complicates his aspirations. Indeed, there are already several Republicans who expressed doubts about who they would vote for.

Laying the cards on the table, 434 legislators are expected to vote on Friday, January 2: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. Although the total membership is 435, the seat held by Matt Gaetz will remain vacant until a special election is held. Assuming everyone shows up and votes for a candidate, Johnson needs 218 votes to achieve a majority and retain the gavel.

All Democrats are expected to vote for Hakeem Jeffries, so the New York representative would get 215 votes.

On the Republican side, Thomas Massie (R-KY) has already announced he would vote for someone other than Johnson. This is the only casualty the current House speaker can afford if he aspires to retain his seat. In this scenario, he would get 218 votes.

However, if at least one more representative joins Massie's cause, Johnson would not garner the necessary votes. If this occurs and no one got a majority of votes, voting will continue indefinitely until this happens. The most recent example of this happening is that of Kevin McCarthy in 2023, when it took fifteen rounds  until he finally got the votes needed.

Should one of the Republicans other than Massie vote "present," the magic number for Johnson would be lower. For example, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), already cast her vote that way in 2023 which also casts doubt on her support.

The current Speaker needs to win by a majority of those voting for a candidate, so there is a scenario where he could benefit indirectly. Assuming Massie votes for another candidate and Spartz votes "present," Johnson would get 217 votes and Jeffries 215. In this case, Johnson would get the gavel since he got a majority of the 433 members who voted for a candidate, 217.

It would be a different case if another Republican joins in voting "present." If Massie votes for another candidate and Spartz and another vote "present", Johnson would get 216 and Jeffries would follow with his 215. Here the Republican would not get the gavel since 216 is not a majority of the 432 votes cast.

"I don’t believe he has the votes on Friday"

While only Massie has made it clear he would not vote for Johnson, Scott Perry (R-CA),Chip Roy (R-TX), Andy Harris (R-MD) and Spartz may also join in.

In recent hours, Roy was a bit pessimistic about the future of the current House speaker. "I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we saw so many failures last year that we're concerned that they may limit or inhibit our ability to move forward with the president's agenda," he said in an interview with Fox Business.

"Right now, I don’t believe he has the votes on Friday," the Texas congressman added.

"I challenge them to explain what their ultimate goal is beyond the noise."

Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker and a frequent Johnson supporter, took aim at Republicans who cast doubt on his vote.

I tell everybody, I was a pretty effective speaker. I could never do his job. He has no margins. Any two or three members can rebel at any moment. When you have no margin, and you have to maneuver and listen and maneuver and listen, that is how the Constitutional process works," he said in an interview on 77 WABC about Johnson.

"They need a Republican unity program for the next two years. These guys who wake up every morning and say, ‘I’m going to vote no. What’s the issue?’ are totally destructive and hand the House over to the Democrats," he added.