Democrats in dire straits: demographics clearly favor Republican states in 2030 reallocation of seats

The trifecta achieved by the Republican Party by the hand of President-elect Donald Trump has been a knockout blow for the Democratic Party, which has lost not only the White House and control of the Senate, but also the popular vote and several historically blue counties across the country. However, organizing as an opposition and restructuring for the midterms in two years is not the only midterm problem facing the party, because in the long term, by 2030, a political cataclysm is looming that is difficult for the Democrats to solve: demographics.

Once every decade, the Constitution mandates a process known as "reapportionment," which is the reallocation of congressional seats among the states, based on the results of the latest census. This situation, of course, directly affects the electoral college and the distribution of House seats.

Democrats may already be worried about this process, since, according to Census Bureau estimates released in May 2024, between July 2022 and July 2023 several blue-leaning states lost population by leaps and bounds while the redder territories began to gain in numbers. Consequently, trends show that, by 2030, the electoral college and congressional seats could favor Republicans, who would see several red states gain districts to the detriment of the union's bluest territories.

The numbers that worry the Democrats

This is a complex situation for the Democrats because, in order to lessen the impact, large states such as California or New York would need to curb the emigration crisis they have been suffering for several years in a very short amount of time. 

The problem is that these states have severe underlying structural problems, such as the homeless crisis they suffer, high crime rates, high state taxes and, in general, the decline in the quality of life and the high cost of living. That is why it is increasingly common for Californians and New Yorkers to seek new opportunities in states such as Texas or Florida.

In fact, the figures are stark: between July 2022 and July 2023, Texas gained 473,453 new residents (+1.6%) while Florida was up 365,205 (+1.6%). Both states are major conservative strongholds in the country today, especially after Trump's massive win before Vice President Kamala Harris.

In contrast, New York and California, the union's two progressive bastions, continue to lose residents (although, good news for Democrats is that they do so more slowly).

Estimates for 2021 indicated that California lost about 358,140 residents(0.9% of the state's population), in 2022 the drop was 104,444 residents(-0.3%) and in 2023 75,423 (-0.2%).

New York had a similar situation: the Empire State lost 1.2% of its population from July 2020 to July 2021, 0.9% from July 2021 to July 2022 and 0.5% from July 2022 to July 2023.

In total, the state has lost a net 533,494 residents in three years, that means that, at -2.1%, New York's population decline is leading the entire union.

But it's not just the union's largest blue states that are losing population. For example, Illinois, another Democratic stronghold that awards 19 electoral colleges, lost 207,842 residents in 2022 (-0.8%) and another 32,826 in 2023 (-0.3%).

Also, according to an estimate prepared by The American Redistricting Project, Oregon's stagnant demographics are putting OR-06 at risk.

"Oregon is one of only 14 states to lose population since 2020 and OR-06 now ranks as the 452nd apportioned seat. The Beaver State will need a significant swing in its trajectory to avoid losing OR-06 in 2030," reads the organization's report.

Quite to the contrary, most of the states that gained residents between July 2022 and July 2023 are almost all Republican-leaning. For example, North Carolina gained 139,526 residents (+1.3%), Georgia, a swing state, had a 1.1% growth margin, with 116,077 new residents.

South Carolina gained 90,600 residents, an increase of 1.7%; Idaho gained 25,730 residents, representing +1.3%; Tennessee saw 77,513 new residents, representing 1.1% growth; Utah gained 36,498 residents, a 1.1% gain; and South Dakota had 9,449 new residents, +1.0%.

The blue state with the best growth margins was Delaware, with 1.2% growth thanks to 12,431 residents arriving in the state.

If this trend continues, Republican-leaning states would have 12 more seats and more electoral college votes: Texas (+4), Florida (+3), North Carolina (+1), South Carolina (+1), Tennessee (+1), Utah (1+), Idaho (+1).

Two swing states, Georgia and Arizona, would also gain one electoral vote each. Michigan and Pennsylvania, also swing states, would in turn lose one each.

Larger Democratic-leaning states would also lose several electoral college votes: California (-4), New York (-3) and Illinois (-2).

Rhode Island, Minnesota and Oregon would lose one electoral college vote each.

This would mean a drop of twelve seats and electoral college votes for the Democrats in the not-so-distant period of six years if this marked trend continues.

Of course, everything could change throughout the rest of the decade.