Donald Trump scored big among minorities to achieve his growth in New York
Except among white voters, the Republican scored above his overall average in the state among all other ethnic groups, with particular support from men.
A Donald Trump supporter in Times Square, NYC.
Republicans still do not have the upper hand in the state of New York. However, the latest election results in the state which is ruled by Kathy Hochul and which is considered a Democratic stronghold, hint at the diversification of the Republican vote reaping successes.
Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) data, conducted in collaboration with the Associated Press, sheds some light on understanding how the Republican Party is already a multiracial party and far from being the party of the WASPs.
Overall, Trump experienced an increase of 6.5 percentage points, going from 37.7% in 2020 to 44.2% in 2024. Compared to this data, support for the Democrats fell from 60.8% to 55.8%.
Trump's percentage growth among certain racial minorities is greater than his overall growth in New York State. That means, support from certain ethnic groups has been key in the small New York achievement.
Trump increased his support among white voters by 4 percentage points (from 47% to 51%). This rise could be a reflection of a consolidated mobilization of the conservative white voter in a state where this group has historically been key for Democrats, suggesting some trend towards competition within this electorate. They remain his strongest supporters in New York. They have some of their strongholds in Staten Island and in the state's rural counties.
However, the change in the white vote is not as remarkable as that of the Latino vote. In this group, it has experienced a significant increase of 10 points (from 25% to 35%). This trend reflects a change in the concerns of this community, which may be more aligned with conservative policies on economic or immigration issues. Among men, support for Trump is 45%, nearly half.
Men yes, women no
The Latino male vote increased by 20% between 2020 to 2024. But the women's vote only grew by 1%, or 6.5 times less than what the overall vote has grown for Trump in the state, which can be considered a defeat in this segment. There is also the conviction against Trump over the E. Jean Carroll case.
Democratic campaigns, focused on abortion access, may have played a role in this failure. The percentage in 2020 was identical to that of men, 25%, so it is clearly something that can be blamed on how much the candidate's image has changed in these past four years.
White women grew as little as Latinas in New York State, going from 43% to 44%.
The African-American group is a traditionally Democratic segment. This 2024 showed a remarkable shift, with a 9 percentage point increase in support for Trump (from 7% to 16%). This gain suggests a greater receptivity to Republican proposals, probably derived from messages oriented to economic or security issues.
As for the difference by gender, women remained nearly in the middle of the overall growth trend, with an increase of 6% from one election to the next. African-American men did rally more in favor of Donald Trump, up 17% from 2020.
Finally, the largest variation was in the group classified by FNVA as "other races," where Trump increased his support by 16 points (from 20% to 36%). This group especially encompasses Asians as well as Native Americans and other minority groups in the state.
Low-income households, the fastest growing group
On the other hand, from an economic point of view, low-income households became the second group that supported the Republican the most and the one that grew the most in this election among his voters.
Households with incomes of $25,000 to $49,999 showed a 15-point increase in support for Trump (from 32% to 47%). The Republican's strongest backer in New York remains a middle-income group, those between $75,000 and $99,000, who were 51% in this election.
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